Simulations

Week 5 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
45.28% (47.4%, 13.3%), 99.9% (18.28%) Florida St vs. W Forest (93.76% win)
35.29% (39.9%, 12.23%), 100% (14.45%) Oklahoma vs. TCU (83.33% win)
33.08% (37.5%, 14.43%), 100% (5.25%) UCLA vs. Utah (80.81% win)
24.63% (31.81%, 10.63%), 100% (3.44%) Auburn vs. LSU (66.06% win)
22.43% (28.04%, 3.18%), 95.2% (20.29%) BYU vs. Utah St (77.42% win)
22.42% (30.31%, 11.06%), 100% (4.09%) Oregon vs. Arizona (58.98% win)
22.37% (30.24%, 9.75%), 100% (2.59%) Texas A*M vs. Miss St (61.56% win)
22.27% (32.82%, 9.85%), 100% (6.89%) Nebraska vs. Mich St (54.05% win)
18.45% (26.85%, 8.09%), 100% (2.81%) Alabama vs. Ole Miss (55.18% win)
15.06% (20.23%, 4.66%), 100% (7.81%) Baylor vs. Texas (66.77% win)
12.11% (15.46%, 3.03%), 98.4% (5.06%) Ohio St vs. Maryland (73.01% win)
10.65% (18.56%, 4.22%), 100% (1.47%) Ole Miss vs. Alabama (44.82% win)
10.14% (N/A, N/A), 95.8% (5.77%) Missouri vs. BYE (0% win)
9.97% (15.2%, 3.43%), 99.6% (2.87%) USC vs. Arizona St (55.49% win)
9.9% (17.67%, 4.49%), 100% (0.96%) Arizona vs. Oregon (41.02% win)
9.31% (18.49%, 3.57%), 100% (1.43%) Miss St vs. Texas A*M (38.44% win)
8.81% (11.53%, 1.14%), 84.8% (9.32%) Marshall vs. Old Dom (73.8% win)
8.41% (16.07%, 3.27%), 100% (1.34%) N Dame vs. Stanford (40.13% win)
7.37% (12.7%, 2.83%), 94.4% (4.15%) Mich St vs. Nebraska (45.95% win)
5.98% (8.56%, 2.11%), 97.1% (2.11%) Stanford vs. N Dame (59.87% win)
5.64% (6.23%, 0.48%), 88.1% (5.65%) Oklahoma St vs. Iowa St (89.69% win)
4.41% (9.84%, 1.61%), 99.2% (1.29%) LSU vs. Auburn (33.94% win)
3.81% (4.68%, 1%), 97.8% (1.88%) Wisconsin vs. N’western (76.14% win)
3.67% (4.31%, 1.16%), 95.3% (2.13%) Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (79.45% win)
3.55% (6.43%, 1.1%), 100% (0.85%) Ga Tech vs. Miami (45.82% win)
2.4% (N/A, N/A), 96.6% (1.21%) Minnesota vs. BYE (0% win)
2.24% (4.58%, 0.36%), 76.8% (1.47%) Arizona St vs. USC (44.51% win)
2.21% (N/A, N/A), 88.3% (1.8%) Penn State vs. BYE (0% win)
2.15% (2.86%, 0.11%), 65.4% (2.95%) Louisville vs. Syracuse (73.97% win)
2.04% (2.51%, 0%), 20% (10.06%) S Carolina vs. Kentucky (81.23% win)
1.97% (N/A, N/A), 90.9% (1.66%) Iowa vs. BYE (0% win)
1.31% (N/A, N/A), 39.1% (3.32%) Duke vs. BYE (0% win)
1.27% (2.25%, 0.1%), 71.1% (1.49%) Miami vs. Ga Tech (54.18% win)
1.27% (N/A, N/A), 94.1% (0.68%) Washington vs. BYE (0% win)
0.9% (1.5%, 0.02%), 91% (0.78%) Kansas St vs. Texas Tech (58.99% win)
0.88% (0.99%, 0%), 3.8% (22.93%) E Carolina vs. SMU (88.55% win)
0.76% (2.18%, 0.23%), 96.5% (0.29%) Maryland vs. Ohio St (26.99% win)
0.75% (3.77%, 0.14%), 100% (0.21%) TCU vs. Oklahoma (16.67% win)
0.75% (2.25%, 0%), 57.9% (1.26%) Texas vs. Baylor (33.23% win)
0.52% (0.66%, 0%), 9.6% (5.38%) Clemson vs. NC State (78.49% win)
0.42% (0.74%, 0.02%), 89.2% (0.28%) Rutgers vs. Michigan (54.83% win)
0.33% (0.75%, 0%), 52.4% (0.61%) Nevada vs. Boise St (43.93% win)
0.3% (0.51%, 0.02%), 22.1% (1.31%) Boise St vs. Nevada (56.07% win)
0.29% (0.39%, 0%), 85.7% (0.21%) Oregon St vs. Colorado (73.5% win)
0.27% (0.45%, 0%), 16.7% (1.61%) Va Tech vs. UNC (58.94% win)
0.23% (0.43%, 0%), 12.6% (1.82%) La Monroe vs. Arkansas St (52.51% win)
0.19% (0.88%, 0.02%), N/A (0.09%) Utah vs. UCLA (19.19% win)
0.19% (0.26%, 0%), 11.3% (1.68%) Cincy vs. Memphis (71.34% win)
0.12% (0.18%, 0.05%), N/A (0.01%) Florida vs. Tennessee (47.69% win)
0.12% (0.16%, 0%), 4.2% (2.85%) Colo St vs. Tulsa (72.7% win)
0.11% (0.26%, 0.07%), N/A (0.01%) Kentucky vs. S Carolina (18.77% win)
0.1% (0.19%, 0%), 60% (0.1%) Tennessee vs. Florida (52.31% win)
0.1% (N/A, N/A), 63.6% (0.11%) Arkansas vs. BYE (0% win)
0.1% (0.16%, 0%), 34.6% (0.26%) Pittsburgh vs. Virginia (61.46% win)
0.09% (0.21%, 0%), 42.1% (0.19%) UNC vs. Va Tech (41.06% win)
0.08% (0.11%, 0%), 31.8% (0.22%) Illinois vs. Purdue (69.69% win)
0.06% (0.12%, 0%), N/A (0.01%) California vs. Wash St (46.62% win)
0.06% (0.18%, 0%), 12.2% (0.49%) Air Force vs. Navy (31.84% win)
0.06% (0.08%, 0%), 4.5% (1.33%) M Tenn St vs. So Miss (74.38% win)
0.05% (0.12%, 0%), N/A (0.05%) Virginia vs. Pittsburgh (38.54% win)
0.05% (0.2%, 0%), N/A (0.06%) N’western vs. Wisconsin (23.86% win)
0.04% (N/A, N/A), 14.2% (0.28%) BC vs. BYE (0% win)
0.03% (0.13%, 0%), 16.6% (0.18%) NC State vs. Clemson (21.51% win)
0.03% (0.06%, 0%), 13.6% (0.22%) Michigan vs. Rutgers (45.17% win)
0.03% (0.06%, 0%), 10% (0.3%) UTEP vs. La Tech (48.55% win)
0.03% (0.04%, 0%), 2.1% (1.37%) W Kentucky vs. UAB (69.76% win)
0.02% (0.03%, 0%), N/A (0.06%) Indiana vs. N Texas (52% win)
0.02% (0.04%, 0%), 3.8% (0.52%) Texas Tech vs. Kansas St (41.01% win)
0.02% (0.02%, 0%), 0.1% (16.43%) N Illinois vs. Kent St (88.4% win)
0.01% (0.03%, 0%), 10% (0.1%) Syracuse vs. Louisville (26.03% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 6.6% (0.15%) W Virginia vs. Kansas (57.28% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0.5% (1.74%) FAU vs. Fla Int’l (79.43% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
77.85% (79.87%, 47.43%), 100% (18.28%) Florida St vs. W Forest (93.76% win)
63.17% (68.47%, 36.65%), 100% (14.45%) Oklahoma vs. TCU (83.33% win)
62.97% (68.92%, 37.88%), 100% (5.25%) UCLA vs. Utah (80.81% win)
53.25% (63.04%, 34.17%), 100% (3.44%) Auburn vs. LSU (66.06% win)
51.64% (63.32%, 32.93%), 100% (2.59%) Texas A*M vs. Miss St (61.56% win)
49.41% (63.44%, 32.9%), 100% (6.89%) Nebraska vs. Mich St (54.05% win)
49.26% (61.15%, 32.15%), 100% (4.09%) Oregon vs. Arizona (58.98% win)
48.9% (57.37%, 19.84%), 100% (20.29%) BYU vs. Utah St (77.42% win)
43.44% (56.01%, 27.95%), 100% (2.81%) Alabama vs. Ole Miss (55.18% win)
37.33% (46.86%, 18.17%), 100% (7.81%) Baylor vs. Texas (66.77% win)
36.65% (N/A, N/A), 100% (5.77%) Missouri vs. BYE (0% win)
34.49% (50.8%, 21.23%), 100% (1.47%) Ole Miss vs. Alabama (44.82% win)
33.66% (40.37%, 15.48%), 100% (5.06%) Ohio St vs. Maryland (73.01% win)
31.13% (49.42%, 19.7%), 100% (1.43%) Miss St vs. Texas A*M (38.44% win)
30.99% (42.58%, 16.53%), 100% (2.87%) USC vs. Arizona St (55.49% win)
30.07% (36.51%, 11.9%), 100% (9.32%) Marshall vs. Old Dom (73.8% win)
29.16% (45.24%, 17.97%), 100% (0.96%) Arizona vs. Oregon (41.02% win)
25.86% (27.9%, 8.05%), 100% (5.65%) Oklahoma St vs. Iowa St (89.69% win)
24% (37.23%, 12.74%), 100% (4.15%) Mich St vs. Nebraska (45.95% win)
23.47% (37.72%, 13.91%), 100% (1.34%) N Dame vs. Stanford (40.13% win)
23.14% (25.74%, 2.96%), 90.6% (22.93%) E Carolina vs. SMU (88.55% win)
22.81% (29.17%, 13.3%), 100% (2.11%) Stanford vs. N Dame (59.87% win)
20.76% (31.95%, 11.29%), 100% (0.85%) Ga Tech vs. Miami (45.82% win)
19.92% (24.84%, 5.91%), 100% (2.95%) Louisville vs. Syracuse (73.97% win)
18.4% (31.23%, 11.8%), 100% (1.29%) LSU vs. Auburn (33.94% win)
17.27% (20.4%, 5.15%), 100% (2.13%) Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (79.45% win)
16.44% (19.5%, 3.19%), 97% (10.06%) S Carolina vs. Kentucky (81.23% win)
15.53% (18.64%, 5.57%), 100% (1.88%) Wisconsin vs. N’western (76.14% win)
14.47% (22.12%, 5.41%), 100% (1.49%) Miami vs. Ga Tech (54.18% win)
13.73% (16.39%, 3.99%), 96% (5.38%) Clemson vs. NC State (78.49% win)
13.63% (15.1%, 2.41%), 67.9% (16.43%) N Illinois vs. Kent St (88.4% win)
12.25% (20.42%, 5.69%), 100% (1.47%) Arizona St vs. USC (44.51% win)
11.69% (N/A, N/A), 96.3% (3.32%) Duke vs. BYE (0% win)
10.62% (N/A, N/A), 100% (1.8%) Penn State vs. BYE (0% win)
10.45% (N/A, N/A), 100% (1.21%) Minnesota vs. BYE (0% win)
9.1% (N/A, N/A), 100% (1.66%) Iowa vs. BYE (0% win)
7.67% (11.35%, 2.36%), 100% (0.78%) Kansas St vs. Texas Tech (58.99% win)
7.67% (17.6%, 2.72%), 100% (1.26%) Texas vs. Baylor (33.23% win)
6.74% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.68%) Washington vs. BYE (0% win)
5.42% (8.16%, 1.48%), 86.9% (1.61%) Va Tech vs. UNC (58.94% win)
4.56% (6.64%, 0.21%), 57.2% (6.2%) C Florida vs. Houston (67.58% win)
4.5% (11.81%, 1.79%), 100% (0.29%) Maryland vs. Ohio St (26.99% win)
4.32% (7.76%, 0.5%), 98.9% (1.82%) La Monroe vs. Arkansas St (52.51% win)
3.82% (5.11%, 0.59%), 97% (1.68%) Cincy vs. Memphis (71.34% win)
3.75% (5.97%, 0.91%), 100% (1.31%) Boise St vs. Nevada (56.07% win)
3.66% (4.78%, 0.65%), 89.4% (2.85%) Colo St vs. Tulsa (72.7% win)
3.62% (4.91%, 1.55%), 100% (0.26%) Pittsburgh vs. Virginia (61.46% win)
3.21% (11.57%, 1.53%), 100% (0.21%) TCU vs. Oklahoma (16.67% win)
3.05% (5.94%, 0.78%), 100% (0.61%) Nevada vs. Boise St (43.93% win)
2.97% (4.15%, 0.38%), 48.4% (4.81%) BGU vs. Buffalo (68.63% win)
2.58% (3.38%, 0.23%), 91.7% (1.33%) M Tenn St vs. So Miss (74.38% win)
2.39% (4.91%, 0.62%), 100% (0.19%) UNC vs. Va Tech (41.06% win)
2.37% (3.92%, 0.48%), 100% (0.28%) Rutgers vs. Michigan (54.83% win)
2.32% (2.74%, 0.52%), 58.6% (3.05%) Rice vs. Hawaii (80.98% win)
2.31% (2.84%, 0.24%), 41.8% (4.95%) Toledo vs. W Michigan (79.42% win)
2.29% (2.79%, 0.34%), 87.9% (1.74%) FAU vs. Fla Int’l (79.43% win)
1.91% (5.53%, 0.85%), 91.3% (0.92%) Utah St vs. BYU (22.58% win)
1.89% (2.79%, 0.2%), 23.1% (6.95%) Fresno St vs. SDSU (65.23% win)
1.63% (3.12%, 0.25%), 51.4% (2.45%) N Texas vs. Indiana (48% win)
1.59% (2.2%, 0.16%), 82.4% (1.37%) W Kentucky vs. UAB (69.76% win)
1.58% (2.1%, 0.11%), 100% (0.21%) Oregon St vs. Colorado (73.5% win)
1.52% (4.19%, 0.23%), 34.3% (3.61%) Houston vs. C Florida (32.42% win)
1.45% (4.5%, 0.61%), 100% (0.18%) NC State vs. Clemson (21.51% win)
1.43% (1.95%, 0.2%), 57.9% (1.95%) UTSA vs. New Mexico (70.12% win)
1.36% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.28%) BC vs. BYE (0% win)
1.17% (3.64%, 0.29%), 100% (0.1%) Syracuse vs. Louisville (26.03% win)
1.13% (1.95%, 0.38%), N/A (0.01%) Florida vs. Tennessee (47.69% win)
1.11% (N/A, N/A), 74.4% (0.86%) Wyoming vs. BYE (0% win)
1.07% (3.75%, 0.43%), N/A (0.09%) Utah vs. UCLA (19.19% win)
1.05% (3.56%, 0.26%), N/A (0.06%) N’western vs. Wisconsin (23.86% win)
1.01% (2.61%, 0.15%), 43.5% (1.79%) SDSU vs. Fresno St (34.77% win)
0.98% (1.79%, 0.08%), 100% (0.1%) Tennessee vs. Florida (52.31% win)
0.95% (1.95%, 0.03%), 8.7% (10.11%) Arkansas St vs. La Monroe (47.49% win)
0.82% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.11%) Arkansas vs. BYE (0% win)
0.72% (1.58%, 0.17%), N/A (0.05%) Virginia vs. Pittsburgh (38.54% win)
0.71% (1.82%, 0.19%), 89.7% (0.49%) Air Force vs. Navy (31.84% win)
0.69% (2.39%, 0.29%), N/A (0.01%) Kentucky vs. S Carolina (18.77% win)
0.67% (1.39%, 0.07%), 95.4% (0.22%) Michigan vs. Rutgers (45.17% win)
0.63% (1.23%, 0.05%), 100% (0.3%) UTEP vs. La Tech (48.55% win)
0.61% (2.13%, 0.06%), 42.3% (1.18%) Old Dom vs. Marshall (26.2% win)
0.58% (0.77%, 0%), 29.2% (1.78%) Akron vs. E Michigan (74.59% win)
0.57% (0.92%, 0%), 43.9% (1.07%) Ohio vs. C Michigan (61.54% win)
0.54% (1.26%, 0.03%), 96.1% (0.52%) Texas Tech vs. Kansas St (41.01% win)
0.48% (0.66%, 0.06%), 100% (0.22%) Illinois vs. Purdue (69.69% win)
0.47% (0.94%, 0.05%), N/A (0.01%) California vs. Wash St (46.62% win)
0.43% (0.59%, 0.25%), N/A (0.06%) Indiana vs. N Texas (52% win)
0.36% (0.45%, 0%), 16.4% (2.07%) Texas St vs. Idaho (78.68% win)
0.35% (N/A, N/A), 94.1% (0.17%) Temple vs. BYE (0% win)
0.33% (0.62%, 0.02%), 39.6% (0.63%) La Tech vs. UTEP (51.45% win)
0.32% (0.54%, 0.02%), 93.3% (0.15%) W Virginia vs. Kansas (57.28% win)
0.3% (1.04%, 0%), 23.8% (1.13%) Memphis vs. Cincy (28.66% win)
0.2% (0.56%, 0.04%), 78.5% (0.14%) UAB vs. W Kentucky (30.24% win)
0.14% (0.24%, 0.02%), N/A (0.02%) Wash St vs. California (53.38% win)
0.13% (0.28%, 0.01%), N/A (0.04%) Kansas vs. W Virginia (42.72% win)
0.12% (0.21%, 0%), 18.6% (0.59%) San Jose St vs. UNLV (54.92% win)
0.1% (0.12%, 0%), 14.2% (0.63%) S Alabama vs. App St (82.15% win)
0.09% (0.35%, 0%), 30.4% (0.23%) So Miss vs. M Tenn St (25.62% win)
0.08% (0.26%, 0%), 38.8% (0.18%) New Mexico vs. UTSA (29.88% win)
0.08% (0.25%, 0%), 4.8% (1.66%) Buffalo vs. BGU (31.37% win)
0.08% (0.34%, 0.01%), 27.7% (0.18%) W Michigan vs. Toledo (20.58% win)
0.08% (0.14%, 0%), 7.8% (1.02%) Ga Southern vs. New Mexico St (56.7% win)
0.06% (0.07%, 0%), 2.1% (2.85%) La Lafayette vs. Georgia St (80.17% win)
0.05% (0.8%, 0%), N/A (0.07%) W Forest vs. Florida St (6.24% win)
0.05% (0.11%, 0%), 14.2% (0.28%) UNLV vs. San Jose St (45.08% win)
0.04% (N/A, N/A), 19% (0.21%) S Florida vs. BYE (0% win)
0.03% (0.09%, 0%), N/A (0.02%) Purdue vs. Illinois (30.31% win)
0.03% (0.14%, 0%), N/A (0.03%) Fla Int’l vs. FAU (20.57% win)
0.02% (0.19%, 0%), N/A (0.03%) Iowa St vs. Oklahoma St (10.31% win)
0.02% (0.07%, 0%), N/A (0.01%) Colorado vs. Oregon St (26.5% win)
0.02% (0.05%, 0%), 1.9% (1.05%) C Michigan vs. Ohio (38.46% win)
0.01% (0.08%, 0%), 8.3% (0.12%) SMU vs. E Carolina (11.45% win)
0.01% (0.03%, 0%), 5.2% (0.19%) Tulsa vs. Colo St (27.3% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 2.3% (0.43%) Tulane vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (0.05%, 0%), N/A (0.03%) Hawaii vs. Rice (19.02% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(17.05%, 29.97%), Texas A*M vs. Miss St (61.56% win)
(16.31%, 28.88%), Alabama vs. Ole Miss (55.18% win)
(15.66%, 27.97%), Oregon vs. Arizona (58.98% win)
(15.88%, 27.26%), Nebraska vs. Mich St (54.05% win)
(12.61%, 22.62%), Auburn vs. LSU (66.06% win)
(10.24%, 20.61%), Stanford vs. N Dame (59.87% win)
(7.57%, 19.76%), USC vs. Arizona St (55.49% win)
(6.67%, 19.46%), Baylor vs. Texas (66.77% win)
(3.86%, 18.84%), Miami vs. Ga Tech (54.18% win)
(7.63%, 13.66%), Oklahoma vs. TCU (83.33% win)
(4.77%, 14.02%), Ohio St vs. Maryland (73.01% win)
(5.61%, 12.09%), BYU vs. Utah St (77.42% win)
(5.11%, 8.63%), UCLA vs. Utah (80.81% win)
(2.72%, 7.96%), Marshall vs. Old Dom (73.8% win)
(0.73%, 7.39%), Louisville vs. Syracuse (73.97% win)
(1.02%, 5.62%), Wisconsin vs. N’western (76.14% win)
(0.24%, 5.71%), Clemson vs. NC State (78.49% win)
(0.63%, 5.11%), Boise St vs. Nevada (56.07% win)
(0.3%, 5.26%), Va Tech vs. UNC (58.94% win)
(0.62%, 4.76%), S Carolina vs. Kentucky (81.23% win)
(0.62%, 4.4%), Kansas St vs. Texas Tech (58.99% win)
(2.12%, 2.77%), Florida St vs. W Forest (93.76% win)
(0%, 4.75%), C Florida vs. Houston (67.58% win)
(0.2%, 4.44%), La Monroe vs. Arkansas St (52.51% win)
(0.64%, 3.13%), Georgia vs. Vanderbilt (79.45% win)
(0.59%, 2.21%), Oklahoma St vs. Iowa St (89.69% win)
(0.11%, 2.67%), E Carolina vs. SMU (88.55% win)
(0.35%, 2.27%), Rutgers vs. Michigan (54.83% win)
(0%, 2.5%), Fresno St vs. SDSU (65.23% win)
(0.13%, 2.15%), Pittsburgh vs. Virginia (61.46% win)
(0.07%, 2.03%), Cincy vs. Memphis (71.34% win)
(0.15%, 1.63%), Tennessee vs. Florida (52.31% win)
(0.01%, 1.65%), Indiana vs. N Texas (52% win)
(0%, 1.47%), N Illinois vs. Kent St (88.4% win)
(0%, 1.35%), BGU vs. Buffalo (68.63% win)
(0.12%, 1.11%), Navy vs. Air Force (68.16% win)
(0.04%, 1.14%), Colo St vs. Tulsa (72.7% win)
(0.02%, 1.06%), M Tenn St vs. So Miss (74.38% win)
(0.01%, 0.97%), W Kentucky vs. UAB (69.76% win)
(0.03%, 0.89%), La Tech vs. UTEP (51.45% win)
(0%, 0.79%), Toledo vs. W Michigan (79.42% win)
(0%, 0.7%), UTSA vs. New Mexico (70.12% win)
(0.1%, 0.57%), Oregon St vs. Colorado (73.5% win)
(0.06%, 0.57%), Wash St vs. California (53.38% win)
(0%, 0.61%), FAU vs. Fla Int’l (79.43% win)
(0%, 0.46%), Rice vs. Hawaii (80.98% win)
(0%, 0.38%), Ohio vs. C Michigan (61.54% win)
(0%, 0.37%), W Virginia vs. Kansas (57.28% win)
(0.03%, 0.24%), Illinois vs. Purdue (69.69% win)
(0%, 0.19%), Akron vs. E Michigan (74.59% win)
(0%, 0.15%), San Jose St vs. UNLV (54.92% win)
(0%, 0.09%), Texas St vs. Idaho (78.68% win)
(0%, 0.06%), Ga Southern vs. New Mexico St (56.7% win)
(0%, 0.02%), S Alabama vs. App St (82.15% win)
(0%, 0.01%), La Lafayette vs. Georgia St (80.17% win)

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