Yep, that is what happened this week. Alabama, Texas A&M, UCLA, Oregon, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and BYU all lost, dynamically changing the playoff picture.
What has not changed is that the Pac-12 is sitll holding on to a playoff spot above the Big Ten, by virtue of undefeated Arizona. But Ohio State’s playoff percentage is back above 99, and it is only a matter of time before Arizona, Baylor, or Florida State fall off the wagon.
Starting in the Southeast
Auburn is still riding tall in the SEC, having the best chance of going undefeated since Missouri pre-Indiana. Mississippi State and Ole Miss are neck and neck for the #2 spot, but finally we are down to 3 undefeated teams from the SEC.
Georgia and Kentucky, who just beat South Carolina, meanwhile have graduated from their early losses back to 100% chance of making the playoff if they win out. Georgia is significantly more likely than Kentucky, but the WIldcats have shown they are better than most expected them to be.
Expect more carnage this week as Auburn and Ole Miss fight for the last of two spots. Mississippi State will also face an exposed Texas A&M. Unless Auburn walks away from this division unscathed, all of the 1-loss teams still have a chance of clawing back into the playoff picture.
The last two undefeateds from the Big 12 are meeting this week, Baylor and TCU. After TCU’s defeat of Oklahoma they have jumped into the playoff fray. The Computer still isn’t too high on them, despite their strong preformance, making it through the rest of the season unscathed. But they are entering the meat of their schedule and could jump by leaps and bounds, starting with a victory over Baylor.
Despite a loss the previous week to Washington State, Utah still is in the playoff drivers seat, making the playoffs 100% of the time they win out. Arizona is now in the Pac-12 lead, but they way things are going, don’t expect these two to make their November 22nd date still on top of the conference.
Notre Dame finally makes an appearance after eaking out a victory over UNC. Michigan State is still preforming well in the polls, but the computer is banking hard on a loss to Ohio State.