Simulations

Week 6 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
45.61% (49.55%, 17.74%), 100% (15.58%) Florida St vs. Syracuse (87.6% win)
38.58% (50.59%, 19.34%), 100% (6.48%) Auburn vs. Miss St (61.55% win)
26.9% (46.31%, 14.76%), 100% (4.52%) Miss St vs. Auburn (38.45% win)
26.1% (35.94%, 11.52%), 100% (5.45%) Arizona vs. USC (59.67% win)
26.07% (37.45%, 11.75%), 100% (4.52%) Ole Miss vs. Texas A*M (55.69% win)
25.06% (31.83%, 8.63%), 99.8% (12.63%) Baylor vs. TCU (70.81% win)
23.98% (28.32%, 8.52%), 100% (4.54%) N Dame vs. UNC (78.06% win)
17.68% (N/A, N/A), 99.4% (7%) Ohio St vs. BYE (0% win)
16.12% (17.73%, 3.51%), 98.3% (9.3%) Mich St vs. Purdue (88.63% win)
14.38% (21.15%, 1.03%), 91.2% (14.12%) Marshall vs. M Tenn St (66.32% win)
11.66% (18.46%, 3.99%), 99.7% (3.5%) UCLA vs. Oregon (52.97% win)
11.39% (17.83%, 3.49%), 99.2% (5.55%) Missouri vs. Georgia (55.06% win)
10.24% (16.08%, 3.12%), 100% (2.49%) Ga Tech vs. Duke (54.88% win)
8.95% (14.39%, 4.11%), 97.5% (3.74%) Oregon vs. UCLA (47.03% win)
8.12% (15%, 2.63%), 97.9% (2.46%) Texas A*M vs. Ole Miss (44.31% win)
7.84% (N/A, N/A), 93% (6.46%) Nebraska vs. BYE (0% win)
7.78% (N/A, N/A), 97.4% (3.15%) Arizona St vs. BYE (0% win)
7.31% (8.09%, 1.22%), 91.5% (6.9%) Oklahoma St vs. Kansas (88.58% win)
6.8% (9.92%, 0.67%), 84.6% (7.3%) Oklahoma vs. Texas (66.17% win)
6.51% (12.17%, 1.88%), 100% (2.23%) Georgia vs. Missouri (44.94% win)
6.5% (8.14%, 1.65%), 95.9% (2.69%) Alabama vs. Arkansas (74.66% win)
4.75% (12.94%, 1.36%), 99.3% (1.43%) TCU vs. Baylor (29.19% win)
4.28% (7.74%, 0.46%), 91.1% (3.17%) Louisville vs. Clemson (52.41% win)
3.84% (5.41%, 0.71%), 97.6% (1.73%) Minnesota vs. N’western (66.46% win)
3.68% (7.04%, 0%), 29.5% (12.47%) BYU vs. C Florida (52.24% win)
2.88% (3.91%, 0.49%), 95.6% (1.84%) Penn State vs. Michigan (69.77% win)
2.72% (6.34%, 0.26%), 81.4% (2.37%) USC vs. Arizona (40.33% win)
2.37% (N/A, N/A), 90.5% (1.91%) Kansas St vs. BYE (0% win)
2.26% (3.31%, 0.43%), 90.6% (1.71%) Iowa vs. Indiana (63.32% win)
2.1% (2.49%, 0.5%), 80.7% (1.66%) Stanford vs. Wash St (80.09% win)
1.91% (2.68%, 0.13%), 91.7% (0.85%) Washington vs. California (69.66% win)
1.66% (3.67%, 0%), 57.1% (2.87%) Duke vs. Ga Tech (45.12% win)
1.6% (2.49%, 0.08%), 53.2% (2.89%) LSU vs. Florida (62.97% win)
1.3% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.48%) Utah vs. BYE (0% win)
1.25% (N/A, N/A), 93.1% (0.73%) Rutgers vs. BYE (0% win)
1.24% (2.03%, 0%), 34.1% (3.63%) Colo St vs. Nevada (60.79% win)
1.04% (N/A, N/A), 38% (2.63%) Boise St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.94% (1.05%, 0%), 3.5% (26.44%) E Carolina vs. S Florida (88.84% win)
0.64% (N/A, N/A), 96.6% (0.3%) Oregon St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.63% (1.32%, 0%), 9.5% (6.59%) Clemson vs. Louisville (47.59% win)
0.61% (N/A, N/A), 12.2% (4.98%) Va Tech vs. BYE (0% win)
0.55% (0.75%, 0%), 55% (1%) Wisconsin vs. Illinois (73.27% win)
0.52% (0.77%, 0.08%), 100% (0.11%) Kentucky vs. La Monroe (63.61% win)
0.5% (1.1%, 0.14%), 100% (0.14%) Florida vs. LSU (37.03% win)
0.44% (0.65%, 0%), 11.7% (3.76%) Utah St vs. Air Force (67.32% win)
0.39% (1.19%, 0%), 33.9% (1.15%) Air Force vs. Utah St (32.68% win)
0.35% (1.05%, 0.04%), N/A (0.09%) California vs. Washington (30.34% win)
0.31% (0.89%, 0.01%), 92.3% (0.26%) N’western vs. Minnesota (33.54% win)
0.3% (N/A, N/A), 37.5% (0.8%) Maryland vs. BYE (0% win)
0.25% (0.68%, 0%), 66.6% (0.36%) Indiana vs. Iowa (36.68% win)
0.2% (0.59%, 0%), 7.1% (2.78%) M Tenn St vs. Marshall (33.68% win)
0.16% (0.59%, 0.01%), 100% (0.1%) Arkansas vs. Alabama (25.34% win)
0.13% (0.21%, 0%), 54.5% (0.22%) BC vs. NC State (61% win)
0.13% (N/A, N/A), 73.3% (0.15%) Virginia vs. BYE (0% win)
0.12% (0.15%, 0%), 0.6% (18.11%) N Illinois vs. C Michigan (78.21% win)
0.08% (0.12%, 0%), 32% (0.25%) Temple vs. Tulsa (64.07% win)
0.06% (0.08%, 0%), 2.1% (2.75%) Miami vs. Cincy (72.02% win)
0.05% (0.1%, 0%), 16.1% (0.31%) W Virginia vs. Texas Tech (47.69% win)
0.04% (0.11%, 0%), 2.4% (1.62%) Texas vs. Oklahoma (33.83% win)
0.04% (0.05%, 0%), 5.1% (0.77%) Wyoming vs. Hawaii (76.04% win)
0.03% (0.07%, 0%), 3.8% (0.77%) Nevada vs. Colo St (39.21% win)
0.02% (0.04%, 0%), 4.7% (0.42%) UAB vs. N Texas (40.62% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 0.1% (5.94%) S Carolina vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 1.6% (0.62%) NC State vs. BC (39% win)
0.01% (0.03%, 0%), N/A (0.08%) Illinois vs. Wisconsin (26.73% win)
0.01% (0.05%, 0%), N/A (0.05%) Wash St vs. Stanford (19.91% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0% (10.48%) C Florida vs. BYU (47.76% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
77.61% (81.18%, 52.33%), 100% (15.58%) Florida St vs. Syracuse (87.6% win)
67.54% (78.83%, 49.46%), 100% (6.48%) Auburn vs. Miss St (61.55% win)
60.07% (80.52%, 47.29%), 100% (4.52%) Miss St vs. Auburn (38.45% win)
58.31% (74.84%, 37.53%), 100% (4.52%) Ole Miss vs. Texas A*M (55.69% win)
52.16% (65.57%, 32.3%), 100% (5.45%) Arizona vs. USC (59.67% win)
51.01% (58.13%, 25.66%), 100% (4.54%) N Dame vs. UNC (78.06% win)
50.6% (60.72%, 26.03%), 100% (12.63%) Baylor vs. TCU (70.81% win)
39.88% (N/A, N/A), 100% (7%) Ohio St vs. BYE (0% win)
39.59% (52.42%, 23.98%), 100% (2.49%) Ga Tech vs. Duke (54.88% win)
39.26% (42.49%, 14.07%), 100% (9.3%) Mich St vs. Purdue (88.63% win)
39.08% (50.73%, 16.12%), 100% (14.12%) Marshall vs. M Tenn St (66.32% win)
34.16% (49.3%, 15.59%), 100% (5.55%) Missouri vs. Georgia (55.06% win)
34.14% (46.29%, 20.45%), 100% (3.5%) UCLA vs. Oregon (52.97% win)
30.52% (33.07%, 10.68%), 100% (6.9%) Oklahoma St vs. Kansas (88.58% win)
29.48% (44.64%, 17.41%), 100% (2.46%) Texas A*M vs. Ole Miss (44.31% win)
28.72% (N/A, N/A), 100% (6.46%) Nebraska vs. BYE (0% win)
28.39% (40.48%, 17.65%), 100% (3.74%) Oregon vs. UCLA (47.03% win)
26.39% (40.46%, 10.88%), 100% (3.17%) Louisville vs. Clemson (52.41% win)
26.36% (35.49%, 8.48%), 100% (7.3%) Oklahoma vs. Texas (66.17% win)
25.02% (27.8%, 2.86%), 87.9% (26.44%) E Carolina vs. S Florida (88.84% win)
24.82% (N/A, N/A), 100% (3.15%) Arizona St vs. BYE (0% win)
23.6% (28.36%, 9.55%), 100% (2.69%) Alabama vs. Arkansas (74.66% win)
22.6% (36.91%, 10.91%), 100% (2.23%) Georgia vs. Missouri (44.94% win)
16.27% (35.18%, 8.47%), 100% (1.43%) TCU vs. Baylor (29.19% win)
15.68% (26.28%, 4.08%), 96.7% (12.47%) BYU vs. C Florida (52.24% win)
15.24% (25.74%, 5.7%), 97.5% (6.59%) Clemson vs. Louisville (47.59% win)
15.18% (28.36%, 6.26%), 100% (2.37%) USC vs. Arizona (40.33% win)
14.77% (N/A, N/A), 100% (1.91%) Kansas St vs. BYE (0% win)
14.03% (17.46%, 1.69%), 70.2% (18.11%) N Illinois vs. C Michigan (78.21% win)
13.68% (18.49%, 4.14%), 100% (1.73%) Minnesota vs. N’western (66.46% win)
13.5% (15.68%, 4.72%), 100% (1.66%) Stanford vs. Wash St (80.09% win)
12.36% (16.28%, 3.3%), 100% (1.84%) Penn State vs. Michigan (69.77% win)
11.67% (16.57%, 3.32%), 100% (2.89%) LSU vs. Florida (62.97% win)
11.53% (15.69%, 4.33%), 100% (1.71%) Iowa vs. Indiana (63.32% win)
10.88% (19.59%, 3.71%), 97.9% (2.87%) Duke vs. Ga Tech (45.12% win)
9.66% (N/A, N/A), 88.5% (4.98%) Va Tech vs. BYE (0% win)
7.95% (10.55%, 1.97%), 100% (0.85%) Washington vs. California (69.66% win)
7.35% (N/A, N/A), 99.2% (2.63%) Boise St vs. BYE (0% win)
6.61% (8.97%, 1.74%), 97.8% (3.76%) Utah St vs. Air Force (67.32% win)
6.5% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.73%) Rutgers vs. BYE (0% win)
6.34% (11.87%, 1.28%), 49.9% (10.48%) C Florida vs. BYU (47.76% win)
5.88% (8.55%, 1.73%), 97.5% (3.63%) Colo St vs. Nevada (60.79% win)
5.67% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.48%) Utah vs. BYE (0% win)
5.35% (11.38%, 2.3%), 100% (0.26%) N’western vs. Minnesota (33.54% win)
4.3% (11.46%, 0.66%), 95.6% (2.78%) M Tenn St vs. Marshall (33.68% win)
4.06% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.3%) Oregon St vs. BYE (0% win)
3.87% (7.83%, 1.54%), 100% (0.14%) Florida vs. LSU (37.03% win)
3.21% (4.39%, 0.43%), 36.4% (7.7%) BGU vs. Ohio (70.08% win)
3.18% (4.16%, 0.64%), 62.5% (2.75%) Miami vs. Cincy (72.02% win)
3.14% (4.09%, 0.52%), 99% (1%) Wisconsin vs. Illinois (73.27% win)
3.1% (3.78%, 0.25%), 28.8% (9.35%) Fresno St vs. UNLV (80.59% win)
3.08% (4.32%, 0.9%), 100% (0.11%) Kentucky vs. La Monroe (63.61% win)
2.47% (N/A, N/A), 40.2% (5.94%) S Carolina vs. BYE (0% win)
2.44% (N/A, N/A), 100% (0.15%) Virginia vs. BYE (0% win)
2.32% (3.16%, 0.27%), 34.7% (6.01%) Toledo vs. Iowa St (70.71% win)
2.21% (5.66%, 0.7%), N/A (0.09%) California vs. Washington (30.34% win)
2.16% (2.67%, 0.27%), 52.9% (3.25%) Rice vs. Army (78.48% win)
2.08% (5.55%, 0.3%), 90.7% (1.62%) Texas vs. Oklahoma (33.83% win)
1.95% (5.23%, 0.35%), 97.3% (1.15%) Air Force vs. Utah St (32.68% win)
1.73% (1.95%, 0%), 8% (20.67%) Arkansas St vs. Georgia St (88.36% win)
1.62% (N/A, N/A), 95% (0.8%) Maryland vs. BYE (0% win)
1.31% (3.02%, 0.31%), 100% (0.36%) Indiana vs. Iowa (36.68% win)
1.3% (1.67%, 0.12%), 96.1% (0.77%) Wyoming vs. Hawaii (76.04% win)
1.21% (2.62%, 0.29%), 84.4% (0.77%) Nevada vs. Colo St (39.21% win)
1.2% (3.27%, 0.49%), 100% (0.1%) Arkansas vs. Alabama (25.34% win)
1.2% (1.86%, 0.15%), 100% (0.22%) BC vs. NC State (61% win)
1.02% (2.18%, 0.05%), 16.5% (5.85%) Memphis vs. Houston (45.29% win)
0.94% (1.78%, 0.17%), 100% (0.31%) W Virginia vs. Texas Tech (47.69% win)
0.87% (1.06%, 0.05%), 26.4% (3.02%) Akron vs. Miami(OH) (80.97% win)
0.75% (1.79%, 0.08%), 64.5% (0.62%) NC State vs. BC (39% win)
0.72% (N/A, N/A), 82.3% (0.17%) Pittsburgh vs. BYE (0% win)
0.7% (2.03%, 0.18%), 39.1% (1.43%) Cincy vs. Miami (27.98% win)
0.59% (1.56%, 0.03%), 27.1% (1.88%) La Monroe vs. Kentucky (36.39% win)
0.49% (0.73%, 0.05%), 100% (0.25%) Temple vs. Tulsa (64.07% win)
0.48% (N/A, N/A), 30.2% (1.29%) La Tech vs. BYE (0% win)
0.48% (1.15%, 0.01%), 92.8% (0.42%) UAB vs. N Texas (40.62% win)
0.46% (1.32%, 0.21%), 60% (0.3%) UNC vs. N Dame (21.94% win)
0.45% (N/A, N/A), 15.6% (2.81%) Texas St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.37% (2.09%, 0.12%), 70% (0.2%) Syracuse vs. Florida St (12.4% win)
0.32% (N/A, N/A), 34.7% (0.72%) San Jose St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.3% (0.67%, 0.01%), 60% (0.35%) New Mexico vs. SDSU (43.17% win)
0.28% (N/A, N/A), 21.6% (1.25%) S Alabama vs. BYE (0% win)
0.25% (0.42%, 0%), 10.3% (2.42%) N Texas vs. UAB (59.38% win)
0.17% (0.56%, 0%), 40.5% (0.37%) Michigan vs. Penn State (30.23% win)
0.17% (0.87%, 0.07%), N/A (0.03%) Purdue vs. Mich St (11.37% win)
0.16% (0.26%, 0%), 13.3% (1.2%) UTSA vs. Fla Int’l (60.88% win)
0.16% (N/A, N/A), 14.6% (1.09%) FAU vs. BYE (0% win)
0.16% (0.21%, 0%), 4.7% (3.35%) Ga Southern vs. Idaho (73.44% win)
0.14% (0.65%, 0.01%), N/A (0.05%) Wash St vs. Stanford (19.91% win)
0.14% (0.35%, 0%), 48.2% (0.29%) Fla Int’l vs. UTSA (39.12% win)
0.13% (0.13%, 0%), 78.5% (0.14%) Tennessee vs. FCS (94.93% win)
0.1% (N/A, N/A), 7% (1.41%) W Kentucky vs. BYE (0% win)
0.09% (0.15%, 0%), 4.5% (1.97%) SDSU vs. New Mexico (56.83% win)
0.09% (0.23%, 0%), 21.2% (0.33%) UTEP vs. Old Dom (38.88% win)
0.09% (0.3%, 0%), 9.2% (0.97%) Ohio vs. BGU (29.92% win)
0.08% (0.15%, 0%), 15.6% (0.51%) Texas Tech vs. W Virginia (52.31% win)
0.08% (N/A, N/A), 2% (3.81%) La Lafayette vs. BYE (0% win)
0.07% (0.26%, 0%), N/A (0.08%) Illinois vs. Wisconsin (26.73% win)
0.04% (0.35%, 0%), N/A (0.03%) Kansas vs. Oklahoma St (11.42% win)
0.03% (N/A, N/A), 12.5% (0.24%) W Forest vs. BYE (0% win)
0.02% (0.17%, 0%), 7.6% (0.26%) S Florida vs. E Carolina (11.16% win)
0.02% (0.03%, 0%), 0.3% (5.79%) Houston vs. Memphis (54.71% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), N/A (0.02%) Colorado vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 2.3% (0.43%) Tulane vs. UConn (65.77% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0.3% (3.33%) Old Dom vs. UTEP (61.12% win)
0.01% (0.03%, 0%), 6.2% (0.16%) E Michigan vs. Buffalo (32.34% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(31.42%, 31.74%), Auburn vs. Miss St (61.55% win)
(18.26%, 31.69%), Ole Miss vs. Texas A*M (55.69% win)
(14.96%, 29.03%), Baylor vs. TCU (70.81% win)
(12.1%, 29.45%), Missouri vs. Georgia (55.06% win)
(13.46%, 26.59%), Arizona vs. USC (59.67% win)
(12.24%, 24.24%), UCLA vs. Oregon (52.97% win)
(7.85%, 21.54%), Ga Tech vs. Duke (54.88% win)
(4.15%, 24.57%), Louisville vs. Clemson (52.41% win)
(7.16%, 18.81%), Marshall vs. M Tenn St (66.32% win)
(3.37%, 16.13%), BYU vs. C Florida (52.24% win)
(3.19%, 12.6%), Oklahoma vs. Texas (66.17% win)
(2.15%, 10.84%), Minnesota vs. N’western (66.46% win)
(4.34%, 7.98%), N Dame vs. UNC (78.06% win)
(1.49%, 8.86%), LSU vs. Florida (62.97% win)
(3.94%, 5.29%), Florida St vs. Syracuse (87.6% win)
(2.07%, 6.83%), Alabama vs. Arkansas (74.66% win)
(1.47%, 6.05%), Washington vs. California (69.66% win)
(1.48%, 5.87%), Iowa vs. Indiana (63.32% win)
(1.01%, 5.64%), Utah St vs. Air Force (67.32% win)
(1.61%, 3.93%), Mich St vs. Purdue (88.63% win)
(1.03%, 4.31%), Penn State vs. Michigan (69.77% win)
(0.83%, 4.08%), Colo St vs. Nevada (60.79% win)
(0.78%, 2.86%), Oklahoma St vs. Kansas (88.58% win)
(0.03%, 3.43%), N Illinois vs. C Michigan (78.21% win)
(0.43%, 2.69%), Stanford vs. Wash St (80.09% win)
(0.11%, 2.93%), E Carolina vs. S Florida (88.84% win)
(0.25%, 2.21%), Kentucky vs. La Monroe (63.61% win)
(0.02%, 2.31%), Miami vs. Cincy (72.02% win)
(0.09%, 1.7%), BC vs. NC State (61% win)
(0%, 1.39%), BGU vs. Ohio (70.08% win)
(0.22%, 1.14%), Wisconsin vs. Illinois (73.27% win)
(0%, 1.17%), Houston vs. Memphis (54.71% win)
(0.05%, 0.91%), Texas Tech vs. W Virginia (52.31% win)
(0.02%, 0.84%), N Texas vs. UAB (59.38% win)
(0%, 0.84%), Toledo vs. Iowa St (70.71% win)
(0%, 0.68%), Fresno St vs. UNLV (80.59% win)
(0%, 0.51%), Rice vs. Army (78.48% win)
(0%, 0.43%), SDSU vs. New Mexico (56.83% win)
(0.01%, 0.37%), Wyoming vs. Hawaii (76.04% win)
(0%, 0.31%), UTSA vs. Fla Int’l (60.88% win)
(0.04%, 0.24%), Temple vs. Tulsa (64.07% win)
(0%, 0.22%), Arkansas St vs. Georgia St (88.36% win)
(0%, 0.19%), Akron vs. Miami(OH) (80.97% win)
(0%, 0.14%), Old Dom vs. UTEP (61.12% win)
(0%, 0.05%), Ga Southern vs. Idaho (73.44% win)
(0%, 0.02%), Buffalo vs. E Michigan (67.66% win)

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