Simulations

Week 7 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
48.44% (62.65%, 27.51%), 100% (16.59%) Florida St vs. N Dame (59.55% win)
48.2% (N/A, N/A), 100% (11.7%) Miss St vs. BYE (0% win)
39.85% (45.04%, 14.11%), 100% (9.68%) Ole Miss vs. Tennessee (83.21% win)
31.55% (54.41%, 16.02%), 100% (7.77%) N Dame vs. Florida St (40.45% win)
29.69% (34.96%, 9.68%), 100% (15.75%) Baylor vs. W Virginia (79.14% win)
22.08% (24.94%, 2.57%), 92.3% (22.04%) Marshall vs. Fla Int’l (87.18% win)
16.43% (22.13%, 4.65%), 99.5% (6.69%) Ohio St vs. Rutgers (67.36% win)
15.38% (18.24%, 4.32%), 97.8% (9.85%) Mich St vs. Indiana (79.43% win)
15.26% (21.99%, 4.74%), 97% (8.83%) Oregon vs. Washington (60.98% win)
15.22% (18.18%, 3.78%), 99.8% (7.42%) Georgia vs. Arkansas (79.41% win)
14.48% (N/A, N/A), 99.3% (6.28%) Auburn vs. BYE (0% win)
11.58% (17.48%, 1.23%), 87.7% (12.13%) Oklahoma vs. Kansas St (63.67% win)
8.99% (13.69%, 2.92%), 95.1% (4.71%) Alabama vs. Texas A*M (56.29% win)
8.71% (11.79%, 1.72%), 92% (7.32%) Oklahoma St vs. TCU (69.36% win)
7.6% (N/A, N/A), 87.9% (5.41%) Arizona vs. BYE (0% win)
7.16% (8.01%, 1.39%), 81.6% (6.65%) USC vs. Colorado (87.12% win)
6.76% (10.89%, 1.85%), 99.5% (2.23%) Arizona St vs. Stanford (54.25% win)
6.03% (7.75%, 0.76%), 85.8% (6%) Nebraska vs. N’western (75.3% win)
5.58% (6.53%, 1.13%), 96.6% (2.7%) Minnesota vs. Purdue (82.38% win)
4% (5.71%, 0%), 65.5% (6.07%) Duke vs. Virginia (69.94% win)
3.22% (4.72%, 0.6%), 87% (2.77%) Iowa vs. Maryland (63.53% win)
2.77% (4.32%, 0.02%), 52.7% (5.18%) LSU vs. Kentucky (63.75% win)
2.5% (5.56%, 0.75%), 89.7% (1.76%) Kansas St vs. Oklahoma (36.33% win)
2.5% (5.86%, 0.34%), 91.6% (1.43%) Washington vs. Oregon (39.02% win)
2.37% (3.17%, 0.03%), 59.5% (3.71%) UCLA vs. California (74.39% win)
2.34% (3.19%, 0.24%), 71.1% (2.74%) Ga Tech vs. UNC (71.04% win)
2.26% (3.33%, 0.03%), 33.9% (6.54%) Missouri vs. Florida (67.52% win)
1.95% (3.73%, 0.44%), 74.7% (2.06%) Stanford vs. Arizona St (45.75% win)
1.87% (3.99%, 0%), 22.6% (8.26%) Colo St vs. Utah St (46.77% win)
1.59% (4.19%, 0.32%), 92% (1%) Rutgers vs. Ohio St (32.64% win)
1.51% (3.45%, 0%), 32% (4.71%) Texas A*M vs. Alabama (43.71% win)
1.32% (1.94%, 0%), 8.3% (15.81%) Clemson vs. BC (67.85% win)
1.26% (2.11%, 0.22%), 98.3% (0.59%) Utah vs. Oregon St (54.84% win)
1.18% (2.78%, 0.26%), 100% (0.22%) Kentucky vs. LSU (36.25% win)
1.16% (1.68%, 0%), 42.9% (2.7%) Va Tech vs. Pittsburgh (69.03% win)
1.15% (3.72%, 0.01%), 44.5% (2.56%) TCU vs. Oklahoma St (30.64% win)
0.87% (1.53%, 0%), 19.8% (4.34%) Boise St vs. Fresno St (56.83% win)
0.73% (N/A, N/A), 53% (1.3%) Wisconsin vs. BYE (0% win)
0.72% (1.35%, 0.2%), 82.8% (0.35%) Oregon St vs. Utah (45.16% win)
0.6% (N/A, N/A), 2.3% (25.74%) E Carolina vs. BYE (0% win)
0.54% (1.01%, 0%), 8.4% (6.37%) Utah St vs. Colo St (53.23% win)
0.49% (0.63%, 0%), 13% (3.75%) Louisville vs. NC State (77.37% win)
0.44% (N/A, N/A), 27.3% (1.61%) Penn State vs. BYE (0% win)
0.27% (1.29%, 0%), 36.9% (0.73%) W Virginia vs. Baylor (20.86% win)
0.23% (N/A, N/A), 5.8% (3.96%) Miami vs. BYE (0% win)
0.23% (0.57%, 0.03%), 30.8% (0.68%) Maryland vs. Iowa (36.47% win)
0.21% (0.65%, 0%), 27.2% (0.77%) BC vs. Clemson (32.15% win)
0.2% (0.58%, 0.01%), 65.5% (0.29%) Florida vs. Missouri (32.48% win)
0.2% (0.63%, 0.01%), 83.3% (0.18%) Virginia vs. Duke (30.06% win)
0.1% (0.22%, 0%), 11.2% (0.89%) Temple vs. Houston (45.1% win)
0.09% (0.31%, 0.01%), 45.4% (0.11%) California vs. UCLA (25.61% win)
0.05% (0.24%, 0%), 31.2% (0.16%) Arkansas vs. Georgia (20.59% win)
0.03% (0.12%, 0%), 7.6% (0.39%) N’western vs. Nebraska (24.7% win)
0.02% (0.11%, 0%), 8.6% (0.23%) Tennessee vs. Ole Miss (16.79% win)
0.02% (0.02%, 0%), 0.3% (6.22%) S Carolina vs. FCS (97.55% win)
0.01% (0.04%, 0%), 2.5% (0.4%) Indiana vs. Mich St (20.57% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0% (15.28%) BYU vs. Nevada (72.71% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
82.22% (N/A, N/A), 100% (11.7%) Miss St vs. BYE (0% win)
80.42% (88.44%, 68.6%), 100% (16.59%) Florida St vs. N Dame (59.55% win)
74.8% (81.8%, 40.08%), 100% (9.68%) Ole Miss vs. Tennessee (83.21% win)
61.18% (81.28%, 47.52%), 100% (7.77%) N Dame vs. Florida St (40.45% win)
56.64% (64.03%, 28.57%), 100% (15.75%) Baylor vs. W Virginia (79.14% win)
52.31% (56.62%, 22.93%), 100% (22.04%) Marshall vs. Fla Int’l (87.18% win)
43.92% (N/A, N/A), 100% (6.28%) Auburn vs. BYE (0% win)
43.17% (49.27%, 19.62%), 100% (7.42%) Georgia vs. Arkansas (79.41% win)
40.63% (53.95%, 19.81%), 100% (8.83%) Oregon vs. Washington (60.98% win)
40.57% (46.88%, 16.18%), 100% (9.85%) Mich St vs. Indiana (79.43% win)
38.92% (48.54%, 19.05%), 100% (6.69%) Ohio St vs. Rutgers (67.36% win)
38.53% (52.25%, 14.47%), 100% (12.13%) Oklahoma vs. Kansas St (63.67% win)
33.23% (36.38%, 11.87%), 100% (6.65%) USC vs. Colorado (87.12% win)
32.09% (41.39%, 11.03%), 100% (7.32%) Oklahoma St vs. TCU (69.36% win)
31.93% (45.47%, 14.48%), 100% (4.71%) Alabama vs. Texas A*M (56.29% win)
28.4% (N/A, N/A), 100% (5.41%) Arizona vs. BYE (0% win)
27.11% (35.49%, 9.42%), 96% (15.81%) Clemson vs. BC (67.85% win)
26.32% (32.37%, 7.85%), 100% (6%) Nebraska vs. N’western (75.3% win)
23.8% (N/A, N/A), 86.8% (25.74%) E Carolina vs. BYE (0% win)
23.58% (33.16%, 12.21%), 100% (2.23%) Arizona St vs. Stanford (54.25% win)
22.48% (28.09%, 9.41%), 100% (6.07%) Duke vs. Virginia (69.94% win)
20.58% (23.29%, 7.88%), 100% (2.7%) Minnesota vs. Purdue (82.38% win)
20.41% (25.52%, 7.87%), 100% (2.74%) Ga Tech vs. UNC (71.04% win)
17.87% (25.42%, 4.57%), 100% (5.18%) LSU vs. Kentucky (63.75% win)
16.13% (22.05%, 5.81%), 100% (2.77%) Iowa vs. Maryland (63.53% win)
16.04% (30.82%, 7.6%), 100% (1.76%) Kansas St vs. Oklahoma (36.33% win)
14.15% (17.94%, 3.12%), 100% (3.71%) UCLA vs. California (74.39% win)
13.67% (21.66%, 6.93%), 100% (2.06%) Stanford vs. Arizona St (45.75% win)
13.49% (23.79%, 5.48%), 99.7% (4.71%) Texas A*M vs. Alabama (43.71% win)
11.76% (22.98%, 4.57%), 100% (1.43%) Washington vs. Oregon (39.02% win)
11.48% (15.95%, 2.18%), 90.9% (6.54%) Missouri vs. Florida (67.52% win)
10.79% (20.95%, 1.85%), 96.8% (8.26%) Colo St vs. Utah St (46.77% win)
10.39% (12.49%, 0.93%), 45.3% (21.21%) C Florida vs. Tulane (81.78% win)
10.05% (13.26%, 2.87%), 97.7% (2.7%) Va Tech vs. Pittsburgh (69.03% win)
10.03% (16.73%, 2.39%), 97.3% (6.37%) Utah St vs. Colo St (53.23% win)
9.55% (11.86%, 1.63%), 98.4% (3.75%) Louisville vs. NC State (77.37% win)
8.06% (12.51%, 2.2%), 100% (4.34%) Boise St vs. Fresno St (56.83% win)
7.87% (18.53%, 3.15%), 100% (2.56%) TCU vs. Oklahoma St (30.64% win)
7.76% (17.83%, 2.88%), 100% (1%) Rutgers vs. Ohio St (32.64% win)
6.6% (9.99%, 2.48%), 100% (0.59%) Utah vs. Oregon St (54.84% win)
6.46% (12.88%, 2.8%), 100% (0.22%) Kentucky vs. LSU (36.25% win)
4.96% (N/A, N/A), 70.4% (3.96%) Miami vs. BYE (0% win)
4.46% (N/A, N/A), 100% (1.3%) Wisconsin vs. BYE (0% win)
3.93% (7.06%, 1.34%), 100% (0.35%) Oregon St vs. Utah (45.16% win)
3.31% (N/A, N/A), 61.5% (4.32%) Rice vs. BYE (0% win)
2.94% (3.01%, 0%), 44.3% (6.22%) S Carolina vs. FCS (97.55% win)
2.68% (6.62%, 0.98%), 100% (0.18%) Virginia vs. Duke (30.06% win)
2.68% (3.46%, 0.04%), 16.6% (15.34%) BGU vs. W Michigan (77.14% win)
2.67% (7.02%, 0.6%), 100% (0.77%) BC vs. Clemson (32.15% win)
2.59% (N/A, N/A), 95% (1.61%) Penn State vs. BYE (0% win)
2.4% (3.3%, 0%), 15.7% (15.28%) BYU vs. Nevada (72.71% win)
2.34% (9.15%, 0.54%), 100% (0.73%) W Virginia vs. Baylor (20.86% win)
1.9% (4.98%, 0.41%), 100% (0.29%) Florida vs. Missouri (32.48% win)
1.8% (3.94%, 0.56%), 95.5% (0.68%) Maryland vs. Iowa (36.47% win)
1.57% (4.73%, 0.53%), 76.9% (0.39%) N’western vs. Nebraska (24.7% win)
1.33% (2.79%, 0.12%), 94.3% (0.89%) Temple vs. Houston (45.1% win)
1.29% (N/A, N/A), 5.1% (24.35%) Arkansas St vs. BYE (0% win)
1.25% (2.75%, 0.08%), 88.4% (1.04%) UAB vs. M Tenn St (43.5% win)
0.98% (2.68%, 0.21%), 90% (0.3%) Pittsburgh vs. Va Tech (30.97% win)
0.91% (2.73%, 0.28%), 100% (0.11%) California vs. UCLA (25.61% win)
0.8% (1.22%, 0%), 11.9% (6.44%) Akron vs. Ohio (65.38% win)
0.65% (0.74%, 0%), 4.4% (14.5%) N Illinois vs. Miami(OH) (87.5% win)
0.63% (1.11%, 0%), 7.7% (6.57%) M Tenn St vs. UAB (56.5% win)
0.56% (0.96%, 0%), 18.6% (2.89%) Air Force vs. New Mexico (58.19% win)
0.55% (2.18%, 0.12%), 100% (0.16%) Arkansas vs. Georgia (20.59% win)
0.55% (1.13%, 0.03%), 35.4% (1.1%) La Tech vs. UTSA (46.79% win)
0.37% (N/A, N/A), 28% (1.14%) Michigan vs. BYE (0% win)
0.37% (0.63%, 0.04%), 48.3% (0.6%) San Jose St vs. Wyoming (54.93% win)
0.29% (0.96%, 0.01%), 39.5% (0.48%) UNC vs. Ga Tech (28.96% win)
0.28% (0.91%, 0.04%), 26.3% (0.91%) Nevada vs. BYU (27.29% win)
0.27% (0.39%, 0%), 7.8% (3.19%) SDSU vs. Hawaii (68.06% win)
0.25% (1.36%, 0.02%), 73.9% (0.23%) Tennessee vs. Ole Miss (16.79% win)
0.24% (0.47%, 0%), 8.2% (2.91%) Texas St vs. La Lafayette (50.02% win)
0.22% (N/A, N/A), 20.5% (0.78%) UTEP vs. BYE (0% win)
0.22% (0.41%, 0%), 12.2% (1.79%) UTSA vs. La Tech (53.21% win)
0.22% (0.42%, 0%), 18.3% (1.2%) FAU vs. W Kentucky (52.32% win)
0.21% (0.29%, 0.07%), 21.6% (0.83%) Syracuse vs. W Forest (61.15% win)
0.18% (0.41%, 0%), 3.6% (4.94%) Fresno St vs. Boise St (43.17% win)
0.17% (0.21%, 0%), 11.8% (1.43%) S Alabama vs. Georgia St (79.61% win)
0.16% (0.77%, 0%), 37.5% (0.4%) Indiana vs. Mich St (20.57% win)
0.15% (0.22%, 0%), 6.4% (2.31%) Texas vs. Iowa St (67.81% win)
0.15% (0.31%, 0%), 11.5% (1.3%) W Kentucky vs. FAU (47.68% win)
0.13% (0.53%, 0.01%), 8.6% (1.27%) NC State vs. Louisville (22.63% win)
0.13% (N/A, N/A), 2% (6.21%) Ga Southern vs. BYE (0% win)
0.1% (0.18%, 0%), 0.8% (11.36%) Houston vs. Temple (54.9% win)
0.1% (0.22%, 0%), 20.8% (0.48%) Wyoming vs. San Jose St (45.07% win)
0.1% (0.13%, 0%), 0.7% (13.1%) C Michigan vs. Ball St (71.8% win)
0.09% (N/A, N/A), 1.9% (4.66%) Toledo vs. BYE (0% win)
0.08% (0.39%, 0.01%), 16.6% (0.3%) Purdue vs. Minnesota (17.62% win)
0.07% (0.18%, 0%), 23.3% (0.3%) W Forest vs. Syracuse (38.85% win)
0.07% (0.1%, 0%), 3.6% (1.93%) Cincy vs. SMU (67.2% win)
0.06% (N/A, N/A), 0.8% (6.95%) Memphis vs. BYE (0% win)
0.04% (0.09%, 0%), 7.2% (0.55%) New Mexico vs. Air Force (41.81% win)
0.04% (0.12%, 0%), 21.4% (0.14%) Hawaii vs. SDSU (31.94% win)
0.03% (N/A, N/A), 0.8% (3.55%) La Monroe vs. BYE (0% win)
0.02% (0.1%, 0%), 3.4% (0.58%) Tulane vs. C Florida (18.22% win)
0.02% (0.08%, 0%), 1.9% (1.04%) W Michigan vs. BGU (22.86% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 3.2% (0.31%) Illinois vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 0.9% (1.02%) UNLV vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0.5% (1.72%) N Texas vs. So Miss (63.3% win)
0.01% (0.07%, 0%), 2.1% (0.47%) Fla Int’l vs. Marshall (12.82% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0.2% (3.47%) La Lafayette vs. Texas St (49.98% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(37.07%, 28.12%), Florida St vs. N Dame (59.55% win)
(8.96%, 28.5%), Oklahoma vs. Kansas St (63.67% win)
(10.09%, 24.54%), Oregon vs. Washington (60.98% win)
(6.64%, 23.84%), Alabama vs. Texas A*M (56.29% win)
(8.3%, 19.69%), Ohio St vs. Rutgers (67.36% win)
(5.65%, 19.96%), Oklahoma St vs. TCU (69.36% win)
(5.91%, 17.57%), Arizona St vs. Stanford (54.25% win)
(6.29%, 14.2%), Baylor vs. W Virginia (79.14% win)
(2.59%, 16.86%), Utah St vs. Colo St (53.23% win)
(3.15%, 13.97%), LSU vs. Kentucky (63.75% win)
(1.06%, 12.73%), Clemson vs. BC (67.85% win)
(5.28%, 8.11%), Ole Miss vs. Tennessee (83.21% win)
(2.14%, 9.55%), Duke vs. Virginia (69.94% win)
(1.81%, 9.21%), Nebraska vs. N’western (75.3% win)
(3.15%, 7.73%), Georgia vs. Arkansas (79.41% win)
(1.84%, 8.06%), Iowa vs. Maryland (63.53% win)
(2.89%, 6.92%), Mich St vs. Indiana (79.43% win)
(1.45%, 7.55%), Missouri vs. Florida (67.52% win)
(1.48%, 6.52%), Utah vs. Oregon St (54.84% win)
(2.86%, 4.37%), Marshall vs. Fla Int’l (87.18% win)
(0.85%, 5.78%), Ga Tech vs. UNC (71.04% win)
(1.02%, 5.61%), UCLA vs. California (74.39% win)
(0.52%, 4.91%), Va Tech vs. Pittsburgh (69.03% win)
(0.66%, 4.68%), Boise St vs. Fresno St (56.83% win)
(0.85%, 3.15%), USC vs. Colorado (87.12% win)
(0.95%, 3.02%), Minnesota vs. Purdue (82.38% win)
(0.14%, 2.71%), Louisville vs. NC State (77.37% win)
(0%, 2.18%), C Florida vs. Tulane (81.78% win)
(0%, 1.98%), M Tenn St vs. UAB (56.5% win)
(0.12%, 1.54%), Houston vs. Temple (54.9% win)
(0%, 1.53%), BYU vs. Nevada (72.71% win)
(0%, 0.84%), BGU vs. W Michigan (77.14% win)
(0%, 0.77%), UTSA vs. La Tech (53.21% win)
(0%, 0.45%), Air Force vs. New Mexico (58.19% win)
(0%, 0.42%), Akron vs. Ohio (65.38% win)
(0%, 0.38%), San Jose St vs. Wyoming (54.93% win)
(0%, 0.36%), FAU vs. W Kentucky (52.32% win)
(0%, 0.24%), Texas St vs. La Lafayette (50.02% win)
(0%, 0.2%), SDSU vs. Hawaii (68.06% win)
(0%, 0.19%), Syracuse vs. W Forest (61.15% win)
(0%, 0.09%), N Illinois vs. Miami(OH) (87.5% win)
(0%, 0.07%), Texas vs. Iowa St (67.81% win)
(0%, 0.07%), S Carolina vs. FCS (97.55% win)
(0%, 0.04%), S Alabama vs. Georgia St (79.61% win)
(0%, 0.03%), Cincy vs. SMU (67.2% win)
(0%, 0.03%), C Michigan vs. Ball St (71.8% win)

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