Simulations

Week 8 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
60.07% (N/A, N/A), 100% (28.43%) Florida St vs. BYE (0% win)
50.01% (58.16%, 20.68%), 100% (11.84%) Miss St vs. Kentucky (78.24% win)
45.68% (59.79%, 20.92%), 100% (10.96%) Ole Miss vs. LSU (63.68% win)
24.92% (32.05%, 2.48%), 94.5% (24.64%) Marshall vs. FAU (75.87% win)
22.24% (27.91%, 7.51%), 99.8% (9.89%) Ohio St vs. Penn State (72.18% win)
21.2% (24.25%, 6.42%), 96.1% (15.05%) Oregon vs. California (82.87% win)
16.64% (22.28%, 5.1%), 100% (6.16%) Auburn vs. S Carolina (67.12% win)
16.47% (19.95%, 4.41%), 98.8% (10.75%) Mich St vs. Michigan (77.58% win)
16.45% (19.35%, 3.92%), 97.7% (9.53%) Alabama vs. Tennessee (81.16% win)
14.37% (N/A, N/A), 98.2% (9.64%) Georgia vs. BYE (0% win)
13.72% (N/A, N/A), 91% (10.81%) N Dame vs. BYE (0% win)
12.57% (17.3%, 3.52%), 99.6% (5.78%) Arizona St vs. Washington (65.63% win)
8.41% (12.02%, 1.14%), 85.3% (8.92%) Nebraska vs. Rutgers (66.78% win)
8.3% (9.67%, 1.83%), 92% (5.26%) Arizona vs. Wash St (82.52% win)
7.99% (9.34%, 2.12%), 97.9% (3.35%) Minnesota vs. Illinois (81.21% win)
7.02% (10.21%, 0.92%), 86.4% (7.1%) Kansas St vs. Texas (65.57% win)
6.93% (11.2%, 1.13%), 74.3% (7.88%) USC vs. Utah (57.55% win)
6.3% (N/A, N/A), 46.4% (13.55%) Baylor vs. BYE (0% win)
6.29% (N/A, N/A), 69.7% (9%) Duke vs. BYE (0% win)
5.63% (7.93%, 0.03%), 65.3% (8.59%) TCU vs. Texas Tech (70.82% win)
4.81% (13.21%, 0.01%), 55.5% (8.62%) LSU vs. Ole Miss (36.32% win)
3.85% (4.91%, 0%), 18.2% (21.15%) Colo St vs. Wyoming (78.39% win)
3.55% (4.15%, 0.06%), 52.1% (6.6%) UCLA vs. Colorado (85.24% win)
2.63% (5.44%, 0.55%), 99.1% (1.19%) Utah vs. USC (42.45% win)
2.2% (2.73%, 0%), 19.8% (11.01%) Missouri vs. Vanderbilt (80.39% win)
1.91% (2.5%, 0%), 7.3% (26.13%) Clemson vs. Syracuse (76.38% win)
1.79% (4.19%, 0%), 38.6% (4.63%) W Virginia vs. Oklahoma St (42.62% win)
1.64% (2.81%, 0%), 15.2% (10.73%) Boise St vs. BYU (58.29% win)
1.06% (2.1%, 0.01%), 29% (3.62%) Maryland vs. Wisconsin (49.85% win)
1.01% (1.91%, 0.1%), 72.5% (1.2%) Wisconsin vs. Maryland (50.15% win)
0.87% (1.51%, 0%), 17.3% (5.01%) Oklahoma St vs. W Virginia (57.38% win)
0.47% (N/A, N/A), 21.4% (2.19%) Iowa vs. BYE (0% win)
0.43% (1.97%, 0%), 63.2% (0.68%) Kentucky vs. Miss St (21.76% win)
0.36% (N/A, N/A), 6.1% (5.81%) Louisville vs. BYE (0% win)
0.32% (0.34%, 0%), 1.2% (25.05%) E Carolina vs. UConn (92.27% win)
0.3% (1.07%, 0%), 18.8% (1.59%) Penn State vs. Ohio St (27.82% win)
0.28% (0.44%, 0%), 10.1% (2.76%) Stanford vs. Oregon St (62.45% win)
0.26% (0.78%, 0%), 10.9% (2.38%) Rutgers vs. Nebraska (33.22% win)
0.25% (0.72%, 0%), 9.2% (2.69%) Washington vs. Arizona St (34.37% win)
0.22% (N/A, N/A), 1.4% (15.51%) Oklahoma vs. BYE (0% win)
0.2% (0.35%, 0%), 7.1% (2.78%) Miami vs. Va Tech (56.37% win)
0.14% (0.24%, 0%), 5.9% (2.35%) Ga Tech vs. Pittsburgh (56.08% win)
0.12% (0.31%, 0%), 18% (0.61%) Oregon St vs. Stanford (37.55% win)
0.05% (0.1%, 0%), 11.3% (0.44%) Virginia vs. UNC (48.48% win)
0.02% (0.06%, 0%), 0.3% (5.67%) S Carolina vs. Auburn (32.88% win)
0.02% (0.04%, 0%), 0.7% (2.56%) Va Tech vs. Miami (43.63% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0.5% (1.87%) BC vs. W Forest (72.49% win)
0.01% (0.05%, 0%), 2.9% (0.34%) California vs. Oregon (17.13% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 0.2% (4.43%) Air Force vs. BYE (0% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
84.31% (N/A, N/A), 100% (28.43%) Florida St vs. BYE (0% win)
82.53% (90.12%, 55.23%), 100% (11.84%) Miss St vs. Kentucky (78.24% win)
80.71% (92.87%, 59.38%), 100% (10.96%) Ole Miss vs. LSU (63.68% win)
56.81% (61.94%, 31.99%), 100% (15.05%) Oregon vs. California (82.87% win)
54.73% (62.81%, 29.29%), 100% (24.64%) Marshall vs. FAU (75.87% win)
48.65% (55.23%, 20.27%), 100% (9.53%) Alabama vs. Tennessee (81.16% win)
46.65% (N/A, N/A), 100% (9.64%) Georgia vs. BYE (0% win)
45.74% (54.53%, 22.93%), 100% (9.89%) Ohio St vs. Penn State (72.18% win)
44.16% (53.78%, 24.51%), 100% (6.16%) Auburn vs. S Carolina (67.12% win)
43.96% (51.98%, 16.19%), 100% (10.75%) Mich St vs. Michigan (77.58% win)
43.7% (54.59%, 22.94%), 100% (7.1%) Kansas St vs. Texas (65.57% win)
41.42% (N/A, N/A), 100% (10.81%) N Dame vs. BYE (0% win)
39.47% (47.61%, 13.12%), 94.2% (26.13%) Clemson vs. Syracuse (76.38% win)
34.43% (44.24%, 15.68%), 100% (5.78%) Arizona St vs. Washington (65.63% win)
32.04% (N/A, N/A), 100% (9%) Duke vs. BYE (0% win)
30.53% (42.74%, 13.96%), 100% (7.88%) USC vs. Utah (57.55% win)
30.22% (39.5%, 11.55%), 100% (8.92%) Nebraska vs. Rutgers (66.78% win)
28.28% (32.33%, 9.15%), 100% (5.26%) Arizona vs. Wash St (82.52% win)
27.37% (30.95%, 11.86%), 100% (3.35%) Minnesota vs. Illinois (81.21% win)
26.6% (N/A, N/A), 100% (13.55%) Baylor vs. BYE (0% win)
24.63% (46.64%, 12.07%), 100% (8.62%) LSU vs. Ole Miss (36.32% win)
22.52% (28.87%, 7.09%), 100% (8.59%) TCU vs. Texas Tech (70.82% win)
22.33% (27.7%, 2.82%), 93.3% (21.15%) Colo St vs. Wyoming (78.39% win)
20.76% (22.36%, 1.55%), 79.5% (25.05%) E Carolina vs. UConn (92.27% win)
17.33% (19.69%, 3.65%), 100% (6.6%) UCLA vs. Colorado (85.24% win)
16.21% (22.76%, 7.04%), 98.5% (10.73%) Boise St vs. BYU (58.29% win)
14.49% (26.98%, 5.21%), 100% (4.63%) W Virginia vs. Oklahoma St (42.62% win)
12.94% (N/A, N/A), 95.6% (5.81%) Louisville vs. BYE (0% win)
12.92% (N/A, N/A), 81.6% (15.51%) Oklahoma vs. BYE (0% win)
12.51% (15.08%, 1.93%), 80.3% (11.01%) Missouri vs. Vanderbilt (80.39% win)
12.25% (22.82%, 4.44%), 100% (1.19%) Utah vs. USC (42.45% win)
9.06% (14.55%, 1.66%), 100% (5.01%) Oklahoma St vs. W Virginia (57.38% win)
7.62% (9.63%, 1.06%), 29.1% (24.32%) C Florida vs. Temple (76.51% win)
5.8% (9.32%, 1.29%), 93.1% (2.35%) Ga Tech vs. Pittsburgh (56.08% win)
5.57% (9.94%, 1.21%), 97.2% (3.62%) Maryland vs. Wisconsin (49.85% win)
5.47% (9.17%, 0.68%), 79.1% (2.78%) Miami vs. Va Tech (56.37% win)
4.93% (8.25%, 1.58%), 100% (1.2%) Wisconsin vs. Maryland (50.15% win)
4.15% (N/A, N/A), 91.7% (2.19%) Iowa vs. BYE (0% win)
3.91% (N/A, N/A), 63.7% (6.13%) Texas A*M vs. BYE (0% win)
3.39% (6.64%, 0.83%), 96.7% (0.62%) Pittsburgh vs. Ga Tech (43.92% win)
3.22% (8.29%, 0.56%), 93.3% (2.69%) Washington vs. Arizona St (34.37% win)
2.89% (4.33%, 0.47%), 67.3% (2.76%) Stanford vs. Oregon St (62.45% win)
2.76% (7.58%, 0.35%), 97.8% (2.38%) Rutgers vs. Nebraska (33.22% win)
2.49% (8.08%, 0.93%), 100% (0.68%) Kentucky vs. Miss St (21.76% win)
2.45% (5.34%, 0.21%), 64.8% (2.56%) Va Tech vs. Miami (43.63% win)
2.17% (6.59%, 0%), 36.8% (5.67%) S Carolina vs. Auburn (32.88% win)
2.17% (7.15%, 0.24%), 97.4% (1.59%) Penn State vs. Ohio St (27.82% win)
1.78% (2.5%, 0.1%), 24.3% (6.74%) Utah St vs. UNLV (70% win)
1.7% (2.3%, 0.1%), 36.9% (4.06%) Rice vs. N Texas (72.39% win)
1.45% (2.23%, 0.15%), 33.4% (3.41%) La Tech vs. So Miss (62.27% win)
1.37% (2.53%, 0.27%), 93.1% (0.44%) Virginia vs. UNC (48.48% win)
1.31% (2.52%, 0.02%), 74.1% (1.16%) UNC vs. Virginia (51.52% win)
1.31% (2.12%, 0.02%), 6% (21.17%) Arkansas St vs. La Lafayette (61.05% win)
1.25% (N/A, N/A), 26.4% (4.43%) Air Force vs. BYE (0% win)
1% (1.29%, 0.21%), 33.6% (1.87%) BC vs. W Forest (72.49% win)
0.97% (2.31%, 0.16%), 90.1% (0.61%) Oregon St vs. Stanford (37.55% win)
0.96% (1.31%, 0.03%), 20.2% (4.39%) Nevada vs. Hawaii (72.38% win)
0.96% (1.23%, 0.12%), 6.9% (13.07%) N Illinois vs. E Michigan (75.34% win)
0.8% (1.44%, 0.02%), 42.9% (1.35%) San Jose St vs. Navy (54.7% win)
0.8% (N/A, N/A), 5.4% (13.68%) M Tenn St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.79% (N/A, N/A), 23.1% (2.76%) SDSU vs. BYE (0% win)
0.51% (2.03%, 0.03%), 29.6% (1.55%) Syracuse vs. Clemson (23.62% win)
0.48% (1.36%, 0.01%), 18.9% (2.48%) Texas vs. Kansas St (34.43% win)
0.38% (1.98%, 0.04%), 47% (0.34%) California vs. Oregon (17.13% win)
0.36% (0.46%, 0%), 15% (2.33%) S Alabama vs. Troy (77.73% win)
0.23% (1.02%, 0%), 21.1% (1.04%) Michigan vs. Mich St (22.42% win)
0.21% (N/A, N/A), 11.8% (1.01%) Florida vs. BYE (0% win)
0.21% (0.27%, 0%), 2.2% (8.7%) Ga Southern vs. Georgia St (77.34% win)
0.2% (N/A, N/A), 4.2% (1.89%) N’western vs. BYE (0% win)
0.2% (0.31%, 0%), 6.5% (3.04%) Cincy vs. S Florida (62.51% win)
0.2% (0.39%, 0%), 10.3% (1.55%) UTEP vs. UTSA (50.82% win)
0.19% (0.8%, 0%), 21.9% (0.82%) Temple vs. C Florida (23.49% win)
0.19% (N/A, N/A), 1.6% (11.49%) BGU vs. BYE (0% win)
0.18% (0.28%, 0%), 62% (0.29%) Arkansas vs. UAB (64.15% win)
0.16% (0.66%, 0%), 6.3% (2.51%) FAU vs. Marshall (24.13% win)
0.13% (N/A, N/A), 0.6% (20.26%) Houston vs. BYE (0% win)
0.08% (0.09%, 0%), 1.4% (5.54%) Toledo vs. UMass (80.6% win)
0.06% (0.15%, 0%), 4.9% (1.22%) So Miss vs. La Tech (37.73% win)
0.06% (0.15%, 0%), 0.7% (7.75%) La Lafayette vs. Arkansas St (38.95% win)
0.04% (N/A, N/A), 1% (3.81%) NC State vs. BYE (0% win)
0.04% (0.18%, 0%), 5.7% (0.69%) Wyoming vs. Colo St (21.61% win)
0.04% (0.06%, 0%), 0.6% (6.02%) Akron vs. Ball St (63.75% win)
0.04% (0.08%, 0%), 1% (3.65%) W Michigan vs. Ohio (48.41% win)
0.03% (0.08%, 0%), 2% (1.48%) UAB vs. Arkansas (35.85% win)
0.02% (0.1%, 0%), 2.3% (0.85%) Tennessee vs. Alabama (18.84% win)
0.02% (0.03%, 0.01%), 5.8% (0.17%) Hawaii vs. Nevada (27.62% win)
0.01% (0.03%, 0%), 3.7% (0.27%) W Forest vs. BC (27.51% win)
0.01% (0.05%, 0%), 2.4% (0.41%) Illinois vs. Minnesota (18.79% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0.6% (1.58%) S Florida vs. Cincy (37.49% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0.2% (4.01%) La Monroe vs. Texas St (57.99% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(22.51%, 34.17%), Ole Miss vs. LSU (63.68% win)
(7.08%, 22.78%), USC vs. Utah (57.55% win)
(9.69%, 13.18%), Miss St vs. Kentucky (78.24% win)
(3.04%, 17.98%), Oklahoma St vs. W Virginia (57.38% win)
(6.44%, 13.77%), Ohio St vs. Penn State (72.18% win)
(5.2%, 14.88%), Arizona St vs. Washington (65.63% win)
(5.68%, 14.04%), Auburn vs. S Carolina (67.12% win)
(4.13%, 14.1%), Nebraska vs. Rutgers (66.78% win)
(7.13%, 8.58%), Marshall vs. FAU (75.87% win)
(3.19%, 11.77%), Kansas St vs. Texas (65.57% win)
(3.48%, 8.81%), Mich St vs. Michigan (77.58% win)
(0.59%, 9.66%), Clemson vs. Syracuse (76.38% win)
(3.09%, 6.73%), Oregon vs. California (82.87% win)
(1.94%, 7.69%), Wisconsin vs. Maryland (50.15% win)
(2.9%, 6.66%), Alabama vs. Tennessee (81.16% win)
(2.3%, 6.35%), TCU vs. Texas Tech (70.82% win)
(1.17%, 6.55%), Boise St vs. BYU (58.29% win)
(0.1%, 6.77%), Ga Tech vs. Pittsburgh (56.08% win)
(0.17%, 6.59%), Miami vs. Va Tech (56.37% win)
(1.06%, 5.51%), Colo St vs. Wyoming (78.39% win)
(1.37%, 4.05%), Arizona vs. Wash St (82.52% win)
(1.35%, 3.62%), Minnesota vs. Illinois (81.21% win)
(0.35%, 2.78%), Stanford vs. Oregon St (62.45% win)
(0.53%, 2.57%), Missouri vs. Vanderbilt (80.39% win)
(0.60%, 2.36%), UCLA vs. Colorado (85.24% win)
(0%, 2.62%), C Florida vs. Temple (76.51% win)
(0.05%, 2.37%), UNC vs. Virginia (51.52% win)
(0.02%, 1.6%), E Carolina vs. UConn (92.27% win)
(0%, 0.9%), Arkansas St vs. La Lafayette (61.05% win)
(0%, 0.87%), La Tech vs. So Miss (62.27% win)
(0%, 0.72%), Utah St vs. UNLV (70% win)
(0%, 0.64%), San Jose St vs. Navy (54.7% win)
(0%, 0.6%), Rice vs. N Texas (72.39% win)
(0%, 0.36%), Nevada vs. Hawaii (72.38% win)
(0%, 0.31%), BC vs. W Forest (72.49% win)
(0%, 0.27%), N Illinois vs. E Michigan (75.34% win)
(0%, 0.19%), UTEP vs. UTSA (50.82% win)
(0%, 0.15%), Arkansas vs. UAB (64.15% win)
(0%, 0.12%), Cincy vs. S Florida (62.51% win)
(0%, 0.1%), S Alabama vs. Troy (77.73% win)
(0%, 0.06%), Ga Southern vs. Georgia St (77.34% win)
(0%, 0.04%), Ohio vs. W Michigan (51.59% win)
(0%, 0.02%), Akron vs. Ball St (63.75% win)
(0%, 0.01%), Toledo vs. UMass (80.6% win)

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