Simulations

Week 9 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
56.91% (64.48%, 22.71%), 100% (17.51%) Miss St vs. Arkansas (81.86% win)
55.01% (66.15%, 26.14%), 100% (24.68%) Florida St vs. Louisville (72.15% win)
30.65% (N/A, N/A), 94.3% (32.19%) Marshall vs. BYE (0% win)
25.43% (38.66%, 9.68%), 99.8% (11.64%) Auburn vs. Ole Miss (54.34% win)
24.89% (28.49%, 8.21%), 98.9% (13.72%) Ohio St vs. Illinois (82.23% win)
21.02% (28.88%, 6.35%), 97.7% (15.88%) Oregon vs. Stanford (65.09% win)
18.56% (N/A, N/A), 99.5% (8.74%) Alabama vs. BYE (0% win)
16.93% (N/A, N/A), 97.3% (14.86%) Mich St vs. BYE (0% win)
16.68% (30.46%, 5.09%), 100% (9.59%) Ole Miss vs. Auburn (45.66% win)
15.59% (23.74%, 4.95%), 99.2% (8.34%) Arizona St vs. Utah (56.6% win)
14.18% (17.22%, 2.13%), 94% (11.87%) N Dame vs. Navy (79.83% win)
13.57% (N/A, N/A), 54.8% (24.76%) LSU vs. BYE (0% win)
12.78% (14.82%, 1.01%), 95.6% (12.67%) Nebraska vs. Purdue (85.19% win)
11.82% (14.49%, 3.17%), 98.9% (8.62%) Georgia vs. Florida (76.37% win)
11.11% (17.06%, 0.71%), 87.3% (12.14%) Kansas St vs. Oklahoma St (63.59% win)
9.53% (15.63%, 2.9%), 98.7% (4.99%) Arizona vs. UCLA (52.07% win)
8.57% (16.38%, 0%), 65.9% (13%) TCU vs. W Virginia (52.3% win)
6.74% (14.05%, 1.13%), 100% (3.49%) Utah vs. Arizona St (43.4% win)
4.6% (6.18%, 0%), 47% (9.77%) Duke vs. Pittsburgh (74.39% win)
3.8% (4.35%, 0%), 27.6% (13.72%) Baylor vs. Kansas (87.21% win)
3.71% (7.74%, 0%), 39.3% (9.44%) UCLA vs. Arizona (47.93% win)
3.68% (7.71%, 0%), 28.8% (12.74%) W Virginia vs. TCU (47.7% win)
3.21% (4.32%, 0%), 10.4% (30.66%) Colo St vs. San Jose St (74.24% win)
2.14% (3.07%, 0%), 15.2% (14.04%) Missouri vs. Kentucky (69.59% win)
2.14% (N/A, N/A), 10.1% (21.1%) Boise St vs. BYE (0% win)
2.1% (3.43%, 0.02%), 73.7% (2.82%) Wisconsin vs. Rutgers (60.86% win)
1.56% (N/A, N/A), 4.5% (34.26%) Clemson vs. BYE (0% win)
1.06% (N/A, N/A), 68.6% (1.53%) Minnesota vs. BYE (0% win)
0.62% (0.93%, 0%), 28.9% (2.14%) Iowa vs. N’western (66.26% win)
0.39% (1.11%, 0%), 8.6% (4.53%) Stanford vs. Oregon (34.91% win)
0.3% (0.37%, 0%), 2.4% (12.19%) USC vs. Wash St (80.1% win)
0.24% (0.35%, 0%), 4% (5.9%) Ga Tech vs. Virginia (66.76% win)
0.18% (0.29%, 0%), 2.9% (6.05%) Miami vs. UNC (61.32% win)
0.13% (0.46%, 0%), 2.2% (5.77%) Louisville vs. Florida St (27.85% win)
0.12% (0.15%, 0%), 0.4% (25.84%) E Carolina vs. Temple (79.94% win)
0.05% (0.06%, 0%), 0.3% (16.61%) Oklahoma vs. Iowa St (81.22% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
86.76% (92.74%, 59.75%), 100% (17.51%) Miss St vs. Arkansas (81.86% win)
79.43% (87.11%, 59.53%), 100% (24.68%) Florida St vs. Louisville (72.15% win)
58.61% (70.42%, 36.57%), 100% (15.88%) Oregon vs. Stanford (65.09% win)
57.98% (N/A, N/A), 100% (32.19%) Marshall vs. BYE (0% win)
54.62% (83.83%, 30.06%), 100% (9.59%) Ole Miss vs. Auburn (45.66% win)
53.97% (72.35%, 32.08%), 100% (11.64%) Auburn vs. Ole Miss (54.34% win)
51.8% (N/A, N/A), 100% (8.74%) Alabama vs. BYE (0% win)
51.76% (58.37%, 21.15%), 100% (13.72%) Ohio St vs. Illinois (82.23% win)
50.96% (63.46%, 29.11%), 100% (12.14%) Kansas St vs. Oklahoma St (63.59% win)
50.14% (N/A, N/A), 100% (14.86%) Mich St vs. BYE (0% win)
45.26% (N/A, N/A), 100% (24.76%) LSU vs. BYE (0% win)
43.87% (N/A, N/A), 90.6% (34.26%) Clemson vs. BYE (0% win)
43.02% (50.16%, 14.72%), 100% (11.87%) N Dame vs. Navy (79.83% win)
42.92% (50.46%, 18.53%), 100% (8.62%) Georgia vs. Florida (76.37% win)
41.31% (56.71%, 21.22%), 100% (8.34%) Arizona St vs. Utah (56.6% win)
37.93% (42.36%, 12.42%), 100% (12.67%) Nebraska vs. Purdue (85.19% win)
28.51% (37.71%, 1.97%), 87.9% (30.66%) Colo St vs. San Jose St (74.24% win)
28.24% (34.17%, 11.01%), 100% (9.77%) Duke vs. Pittsburgh (74.39% win)
28.12% (43.76%, 11.12%), 100% (4.99%) Arizona vs. UCLA (52.07% win)
26.1% (44.69%, 9.13%), 100% (12.74%) W Virginia vs. TCU (47.7% win)
23.63% (41.35%, 10.03%), 100% (3.49%) Utah vs. Arizona St (43.4% win)
23.53% (N/A, N/A), 98% (21.1%) Boise St vs. BYE (0% win)
23.49% (37.8%, 7.79%), 100% (13%) TCU vs. W Virginia (52.3% win)
19.61% (22.02%, 3.12%), 99.8% (13.72%) Baylor vs. Kansas (87.21% win)
17.68% (21.96%, 0.59%), 67.2% (25.84%) E Carolina vs. Temple (79.94% win)
16.67% (29.06%, 5.26%), 99.8% (9.44%) UCLA vs. Arizona (47.93% win)
14.58% (19.61%, 3.05%), 75.7% (14.04%) Missouri vs. Kentucky (69.59% win)
10.58% (14.76%, 2.16%), 87.6% (5.9%) Ga Tech vs. Virginia (66.76% win)
10.42% (23.8%, 5.25%), 94.1% (5.77%) Louisville vs. Florida St (27.85% win)
10.42% (12.81%, 0.05%), 62.4% (16.61%) Oklahoma vs. Iowa St (81.22% win)
10.13% (14.13%, 3.9%), 100% (2.82%) Wisconsin vs. Rutgers (60.86% win)
8.3% (12.78%, 1.18%), 69.4% (6.05%) Miami vs. UNC (61.32% win)
7.35% (9.17%, 0%), 50.6% (12.19%) USC vs. Wash St (80.1% win)
7.04% (N/A, N/A), 100% (1.53%) Minnesota vs. BYE (0% win)
4.96% (6.94%, 1.06%), 100% (2.14%) Iowa vs. N’western (66.26% win)
4.47% (4.88%, 0.32%), 13.5% (31.58%) C Florida vs. UConn (90.9% win)
4.42% (12.46%, 0.1%), 64.9% (4.53%) Stanford vs. Oregon (34.91% win)
3.13% (3.97%, 0%), 63.5% (4.91%) Texas A*M vs. La Monroe (78.84% win)
2.91% (6.61%, 0.57%), 100% (1.74%) UNC vs. Miami (38.68% win)
1.93% (2.95%, 0.23%), 31.5% (5.3%) La Tech vs. W Kentucky (62.28% win)
1.53% (1.94%, 0.13%), 27.4% (4.95%) Rice vs. Fla Int’l (77.25% win)
1.24% (1.56%, 0%), 11.4% (10.57%) Utah St vs. Hawaii (79.3% win)
1.15% (1.42%, 0.13%), 22.2% (4.86%) Air Force vs. Army (78.5% win)
1.14% (2.13%, 0.02%), 15.3% (6.6%) Nevada vs. SDSU (52.98% win)
0.95% (N/A, N/A), 6% (15.48%) N Illinois vs. BYE (0% win)
0.74% (2.61%, 0.09%), 42.1% (1.14%) Pittsburgh vs. Duke (25.61% win)
0.7% (1.23%, 0.06%), 14.3% (3.56%) BC vs. Va Tech (54.15% win)
0.62% (2.03%, 0%), 21.5% (2.55%) Kentucky vs. Missouri (30.41% win)
0.51% (0.88%, 0.06%), 2.8% (16.17%) M Tenn St vs. BYU (54.12% win)
0.48% (0.85%, 0.04%), 7.1% (5.99%) Maryland vs. Penn State (53.83% win)
0.45% (0.87%, 0.07%), 13.9% (2.23%) SDSU vs. Nevada (47.02% win)
0.41% (2.26%, 0%), 59.4% (0.69%) Arkansas vs. Miss St (18.14% win)
0.36% (0.98%, 0%), 7.1% (5.01%) Oklahoma St vs. Kansas St (36.41% win)
0.36% (0.74%, 0%), 8.1% (4.31%) S Alabama vs. La Lafayette (48.62% win)
0.33% (0.97%, 0%), 5.8% (1.72%) N’western vs. Iowa (33.74% win)
0.27% (0.41%, 0.02%), 6.8% (3.81%) UTEP vs. So Miss (62.91% win)
0.22% (0.47%, 0%), 3% (6.88%) Va Tech vs. BC (45.85% win)
0.21% (0.53%, 0%), 5% (4.15%) Rutgers vs. Wisconsin (39.14% win)
0.2% (0.25%, 0%), 1.5% (12.71%) Ga Southern vs. Troy (78.01% win)
0.19% (0.28%, 0%), 2.8% (6.56%) Cincy vs. Tulane (67.12% win)
0.18% (0.54%, 0%), 17.2% (0.81%) Virginia vs. Ga Tech (33.24% win)
0.18% (0.35%, 0%), 0.8% (22.27%) La Lafayette vs. S Alabama (51.38% win)
0.15% (0.63%, 0%), 1.1% (1.79%) Florida vs. Georgia (23.63% win)
0.14% (0.18%, 0%), 2.7% (5.1%) Washington vs. Colorado (76.13% win)
0.13% (0.28%, 0%), 3% (4.22%) Penn State vs. Maryland (46.17% win)
0.11% (N/A, N/A), 1% (10.54%) BGU vs. BYE (0% win)
0.09% (N/A, N/A), 1.1% (7.56%) Toledo vs. BYE (0% win)
0.08% (0.1%, 0%), 0.9% (8.8%) W Michigan vs. Miami(OH) (75.61% win)
0.07% (0.23%, 0.01%), 6.5% (0.92%) San Jose St vs. Colo St (25.76% win)
0.06% (0.1%, 0%), 4.8% (1.24%) Oregon St vs. California (57.57% win)
0.05% (0.06%, 0%), 0.2% (18.88%) Houston vs. S Florida (71.51% win)
0.04% (0.05%, 0%), 0.2% (15.01%) Memphis vs. Tulsa (74.38% win)
0.03% (0.06%, 0%), 0.8% (3.65%) NC State vs. Syracuse (43.94% win)
0.03% (0.03%, 0%), 0.3% (8.49%) Texas St vs. New Mexico St (79.24% win)
0.02% (0.03%, 0%), 0.5% (3.93%) Syracuse vs. NC State (56.06% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0.3% (2.59%) California vs. Oregon St (42.43% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0% (17.8%) Arkansas St vs. Idaho (81.71% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(27.01%, 47.59%), Auburn vs. Ole Miss (54.34% win)
(15.46%, 33.12%), Arizona St vs. Utah (56.6% win)
(11.84%, 32.9%), TCU vs. W Virginia (52.3% win)
(10.13%, 28.03%), Arizona vs. UCLA (52.07% win)
(11.47%, 21.06%), Florida St vs. Louisville (72.15% win)
(8.58%, 19.85%), Oregon vs. Stanford (65.09% win)
(5.95%, 13.12%), Kansas St vs. Oklahoma St (63.59% win)
(7.57%, 7.83%), Miss St vs. Arkansas (81.86% win)
(2.67%, 8.02%), Georgia vs. Florida (76.37% win)
(1.11%, 9.36%), Colo St vs. San Jose St (74.24% win)
(3.6%, 6.61%), Ohio St vs. Illinois (82.23% win)
(3.04%, 7.14%), N Dame vs. Navy (79.83% win)
(1.58%, 7.8%), Duke vs. Pittsburgh (74.39% win)
(0.11%, 8.18%), Miami vs. UNC (61.32% win)
(0.93%, 6.44%), Missouri vs. Kentucky (69.59% win)
(2.04%, 4.43%), Nebraska vs. Purdue (85.19% win)
(1.33%, 4.32%), Wisconsin vs. Rutgers (60.86% win)
(0.11%, 4.54%), Ga Tech vs. Virginia (66.76% win)
(0.03%, 4.28%), E Carolina vs. Temple (79.94% win)
(0.55%, 2.41%), Baylor vs. Kansas (87.21% win)
(0.31%, 2.62%), Iowa vs. N’western (66.26% win)
(0.01%, 2.39%), Oklahoma vs. Iowa St (81.22% win)
(0.07%, 1.82%), USC vs. Wash St (80.1% win)
(0%, 1.41%), Nevada vs. SDSU (52.98% win)
(0%, 1.02%), La Tech vs. W Kentucky (62.28% win)
(0%, 0.84%), Texas A*M vs. La Monroe (78.84% win)
(0%, 0.78%), BC vs. Va Tech (54.15% win)
(0%, 0.55%), La Lafayette vs. S Alabama (51.38% win)
(0%, 0.52%), Maryland vs. Penn State (53.83% win)
(0%, 0.41%), C Florida vs. UConn (90.9% win)
(0%, 0.41%), Rice vs. Fla Int’l (77.25% win)
(0%, 0.37%), M Tenn St vs. BYU (54.12% win)
(0%, 0.32%), Utah St vs. Hawaii (79.3% win)
(0%, 0.27%), Air Force vs. Army (78.5% win)
(0%, 0.14%), UTEP vs. So Miss (62.91% win)
(0%, 0.09%), Cincy vs. Tulane (67.12% win)
(0%, 0.05%), Oregon St vs. California (57.57% win)
(0%, 0.05%), Ga Southern vs. Troy (78.01% win)
(0%, 0.04%), Syracuse vs. NC State (56.06% win)
(0%, 0.04%), Washington vs. Colorado (76.13% win)
(0%, 0.02%), W Michigan vs. Miami(OH) (75.61% win)
(0%, 0.01%), Memphis vs. Tulsa (74.38% win)
(0%, 0.01%), Houston vs. S Florida (71.51% win)

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