Simulations

Week 10 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
65.16% (65.51%, 26.37%), 100% (24.32%) Miss St vs. FCS (99.09% win)
61.57% (66.26%, 24.42%), 100% (31.18%) Florida St vs. Virginia (88.78% win)
35.92% (46.38%, 11.27%), 99.8% (26.14%) Auburn vs. Texas A*M (70.19% win)
27.78% (40.57%, 3.42%), 93.7% (27.78%) Oregon vs. Utah (65.55% win)
25.56% (29.26%, 0.15%), 84.4% (30.16%) Marshall vs. So Miss (87.26% win)
23.54% (39.91%, 6.4%), 99.5% (16.06%) Ohio St vs. Mich St (51.13% win)
22.93% (34.08%, 8.97%), 98.7% (16.22%) Arizona St vs. N Dame (55.56% win)
16.1% (29.67%, 0.36%), 81.4% (19.31%) Kansas St vs. TCU (53.69% win)
15.79% (24.57%, 5.81%), 100% (7.15%) Alabama vs. LSU (53.19% win)
15.6% (33.52%, 1.25%), 91.5% (15.72%) N Dame vs. Arizona St (44.44% win)
15.18% (30.26%, 0.76%), 96.2% (14.31%) Mich St vs. Ohio St (48.87% win)
15.11% (32.62%, 0%), 57.5% (26.26%) TCU vs. Kansas St (46.31% win)
12.06% (N/A, N/A), 91.9% (12.96%) Nebraska vs. BYE (0% win)
10.44% (22.3%, 0%), 42.7% (24.44%) LSU vs. Alabama (46.81% win)
8.08% (11.99%, 0.06%), 37.6% (21.38%) UCLA vs. Washington (67.18% win)
5.38% (6.06%, 0%), 13.7% (39%) Colo St vs. Hawaii (88.73% win)
3.57% (3.64%, 0%), 14% (25.48%) Ole Miss vs. FCS (98.04% win)
3.5% (4.45%, 0%), 17.9% (19.52%) Boise St vs. New Mexico (78.57% win)
3.11% (3.82%, 0%), 63% (4.9%) Wisconsin vs. Purdue (81.25% win)
2.94% (5.55%, 0%), 19.2% (15.24%) Baylor vs. Oklahoma (52.9% win)
2.74% (N/A, N/A), 21.2% (12.89%) Missouri vs. BYE (0% win)
2.11% (2.62%, 0%), 15% (14.03%) Duke vs. Syracuse (80.39% win)
1.46% (2.11%, 0%), 17.8% (8.19%) Georgia vs. Kentucky (69.03% win)
1.44% (1.69%, 0%), 18% (7.97%) Arizona vs. Colorado (84.87% win)
1.08% (2.09%, 0.02%), 64.4% (1.66%) Minnesota vs. Iowa (50.98% win)
0.66% (1.34%, 0%), 20.8% (3.17%) Iowa vs. Minnesota (49.02% win)
0.43% (1.24%, 0%), 4.5% (9.42%) Utah vs. Oregon (34.45% win)
0.38% (0.43%, 0%), 1% (36.05%) Clemson vs. W Forest (87.77% win)
0.14% (N/A, N/A), 1.2% (11.57%) Miami vs. BYE (0% win)
0.13% (0.18%, 0%), 1% (12.64%) Ga Tech vs. NC State (70.22% win)
0.09% (N/A, N/A), 0.6% (13.3%) USC vs. BYE (0% win)
0.02% (0.04%, 0%), 0% (23.39%) Oklahoma vs. Baylor (47.1% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
91.16% (91.48%, 56.04%), 100% (24.32%) Miss St vs. FCS (99.09% win)
85.17% (88.38%, 59.71%), 100% (31.18%) Florida St vs. Virginia (88.78% win)
71.62% (84.96%, 40.18%), 100% (26.14%) Auburn vs. Texas A*M (70.19% win)
70.92% (83.63%, 46.73%), 100% (27.78%) Oregon vs. Utah (65.55% win)
64.56% (87.22%, 38.28%), 100% (19.31%) Kansas St vs. TCU (53.69% win)
58.2% (75.43%, 36.65%), 100% (16.22%) Arizona St vs. N Dame (55.56% win)
55.79% (76.45%, 34.17%), 100% (16.06%) Ohio St vs. Mich St (51.13% win)
53.71% (57.6%, 27%), 100% (30.16%) Marshall vs. So Miss (87.26% win)
51.12% (73.9%, 25.22%), 100% (7.15%) Alabama vs. LSU (53.19% win)
50.88% (76.19%, 30.63%), 100% (15.72%) N Dame vs. Arizona St (44.44% win)
47.57% (68.4%, 27.65%), 100% (14.31%) Mich St vs. Ohio St (48.87% win)
46.23% (71.99%, 23.55%), 100% (24.44%) LSU vs. Alabama (46.81% win)
40.07% (68.14%, 15.85%), 100% (26.26%) TCU vs. Kansas St (46.31% win)
38.66% (43.08%, 3.81%), 92.6% (39%) Colo St vs. Hawaii (88.73% win)
38.46% (42.64%, 8.42%), 82.6% (36.05%) Clemson vs. W Forest (87.77% win)
36.48% (N/A, N/A), 100% (12.96%) Nebraska vs. BYE (0% win)
32.67% (37.71%, 11.98%), 100% (14.03%) Duke vs. Syracuse (80.39% win)
31.76% (43.06%, 8.62%), 99.9% (21.38%) UCLA vs. Washington (67.18% win)
26.64% (27.14%, 1.53%), 99.5% (25.48%) Ole Miss vs. FCS (98.04% win)
24.99% (N/A, N/A), 100% (12.89%) Missouri vs. BYE (0% win)
22.94% (28.07%, 4.1%), 99.3% (19.52%) Boise St vs. New Mexico (78.57% win)
21.03% (34.29%, 6.13%), 99.8% (15.24%) Baylor vs. Oklahoma (52.9% win)
14.97% (19.89%, 3.35%), 79.6% (12.64%) Ga Tech vs. NC State (70.22% win)
14.42% (16.5%, 5.38%), 100% (4.9%) Wisconsin vs. Purdue (81.25% win)
13.62% (28.91%, 0%), 58.2% (23.39%) Oklahoma vs. Baylor (47.1% win)
12.18% (17%, 1.42%), 85.5% (8.19%) Georgia vs. Kentucky (69.03% win)
11.1% (N/A, N/A), 59.1% (11.57%) Miami vs. BYE (0% win)
9.03% (N/A, N/A), 62.2% (13.3%) USC vs. BYE (0% win)
8.86% (10.29%, 0.79%), 97.9% (7.97%) Arizona vs. Colorado (84.87% win)
8.65% (24.76%, 0.18%), 88.6% (9.42%) Utah vs. Oregon (34.45% win)
6.25% (10.81%, 1.86%), 100% (3.17%) Iowa vs. Minnesota (49.02% win)
5.64% (9.7%, 1.4%), 100% (1.66%) Minnesota vs. Iowa (50.98% win)
5.01% (7.34%, 1%), 43.3% (9.28%) La Tech vs. UAB (63.18% win)
4.22% (7.21%, 0.07%), 24.4% (17.03%) W Virginia vs. Texas (58.04% win)
4.21% (N/A, N/A), 31.9% (12.65%) Nevada vs. BYE (0% win)
4.15% (13.92%, 0%), 71% (5.84%) Texas A*M vs. Auburn (29.81% win)
3.3% (6.01%, 0.12%), 23.7% (13.22%) Louisville vs. BC (53.83% win)
2.23% (3.18%, 0.09%), 15.5% (13.61%) Utah St vs. Wyoming (69.09% win)
1.57% (2.07%, 0%), 20.8% (7.29%) Air Force vs. UNLV (75.66% win)
1.41% (1.82%, 0.08%), 18.5% (7.1%) Rice vs. UTSA (76.18% win)
1.33% (1.91%, 0.06%), 3.4% (8.61%) Florida vs. Vanderbilt (68.44% win)
1.21% (2.57%, 0.03%), 13.9% (8.04%) BC vs. Louisville (46.17% win)
1.08% (1.45%, 0%), 7.6% (14.15%) N Illinois vs. Ball St (74.14% win)
0.83% (0.95%, 0%), 1.8% (45.79%) La Lafayette vs. New Mexico St (86.88% win)
0.71% (N/A, N/A), 2.9% (23.79%) E Carolina vs. BYE (0% win)
0.53% (N/A, N/A), 4.8% (10.96%) Cincy vs. BYE (0% win)
0.49% (0.73%, 0.05%), 4.7% (9.56%) UTEP vs. W Kentucky (64.23% win)
0.4% (0.73%, 0.02%), 1.9% (20.06%) Ga Southern vs. Texas St (52.9% win)
0.36% (N/A, N/A), 3.7% (9.53%) UNC vs. BYE (0% win)
0.31% (N/A, N/A), 2.3% (12.54%) Maryland vs. BYE (0% win)
0.25% (N/A, N/A), 1.8% (13.76%) W Michigan vs. BYE (0% win)
0.16% (0.21%, 0%), 0.5% (27.89%) Houston vs. Tulane (73.35% win)
0.16% (0.31%, 0%), 0.7% (20.75%) Memphis vs. Temple (50.51% win)
0.15% (0.18%, 0%), 1.7% (8.43%) Toledo vs. Kent St (80.63% win)
0.13% (N/A, N/A), 0.6% (21.64%) M Tenn St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.09% (N/A, N/A), 0.3% (27.6%) C Florida vs. BYE (0% win)
0.08% (0.1%, 0%), 2.3% (3.46%) SDSU vs. Idaho (77.48% win)
0.07% (0.21%, 0%), 0.8% (8.23%) Washington vs. UCLA (32.82% win)
0.07% (0.1%, 0%), 0.7% (9.57%) BGU vs. Akron (63.67% win)
0.05% (0.16%, 0%), 0.4% (11.1%) NC State vs. Ga Tech (29.78% win)
0.04% (0.1%, 0%), 0.7% (5.15%) UAB vs. La Tech (36.82% win)
0.02% (N/A, N/A), 0.1% (11%) Stanford vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 0.1% (7.14%) Pittsburgh vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (0.01%, 0%), 0% (23.77%) Arkansas St vs. S Alabama (56.04% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0% (10.58%) Texas St vs. Ga Southern (47.1% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(31.08%, 50.73%), Kansas St vs. TCU (53.69% win)
(31.45%, 41.49%), Ohio St vs. Mich St (51.13% win)
(29.07%, 42.54%), Arizona St vs. N Dame (55.56% win)
(20.64%, 48.54%), Alabama vs. LSU (53.19% win)
(13.6%, 28.82%), Oregon vs. Utah (65.55% win)
(10.46%, 23.11%), Auburn vs. Texas A*M (70.19% win)
(2.63%, 28.55%), Baylor vs. Oklahoma (52.9% win)
(3.91%, 11.44%), UCLA vs. Washington (67.18% win)
(1.69%, 8.62%), Minnesota vs. Iowa (50.98% win)
(4.69%, 3.21%), Florida St vs. Virginia (88.78% win)
(3.7%, 3.89%), Marshall vs. So Miss (87.26% win)
(0.95%, 5.13%), Boise St vs. New Mexico (78.57% win)
(0.51%, 5.04%), Duke vs. Syracuse (80.39% win)
(0.65%, 4.82%), Georgia vs. Kentucky (69.03% win)
(0.68%, 4.42%), Colo St vs. Hawaii (88.73% win)
(0.05%, 5.03%), Ga Tech vs. NC State (70.22% win)
(0.05%, 4.18%), Clemson vs. W Forest (87.77% win)
(0%, 4.07%), Louisville vs. BC (53.83% win)
(0%, 2.99%), W Virginia vs. Texas (58.04% win)
(0.71%, 2.08%), Wisconsin vs. Purdue (81.25% win)
(0%, 2.39%), La Tech vs. UAB (63.18% win)
(0.25%, 1.43%), Arizona vs. Colorado (84.87% win)
(0%, 0.95%), Utah St vs. Wyoming (69.09% win)
(0.35%, 0.32%), Miss St vs. FCS (99.09% win)
(0%, 0.58%), Florida vs. Vanderbilt (68.44% win)
(0.07%, 0.5%), Ole Miss vs. FCS (98.04% win)
(0%, 0.5%), Air Force vs. UNLV (75.66% win)
(0%, 0.41%), Rice vs. UTSA (76.18% win)
(0%, 0.37%), N Illinois vs. Ball St (74.14% win)
(0%, 0.34%), Ga Southern vs. Texas St (52.9% win)
(0%, 0.24%), UTEP vs. W Kentucky (64.23% win)
(0%, 0.15%), Memphis vs. Temple (50.51% win)
(0%, 0.12%), La Lafayette vs. New Mexico St (86.88% win)
(0%, 0.05%), Houston vs. Tulane (73.35% win)
(0%, 0.03%), BGU vs. Akron (63.67% win)
(0%, 0.03%), Toledo vs. Kent St (80.63% win)
(0%, 0.02%), SDSU vs. Idaho (77.48% win)

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