Simulations

Week 11 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
65.25% (77.44%, 35.63%), 100% (32.26%) Florida St vs. Miami (70.84% win)
62.98% (84.25%, 38.07%), 100% (22.98%) Miss St vs. Alabama (53.93% win)
41.32% (52.14%, 18.86%), 99.9% (30.26%) Ohio St vs. Minnesota (67.46% win)
40.04% (N/A, N/A), 98% (40.45%) Oregon vs. BYE (0% win)
35.07% (40.51%, 0%), 64.2% (54.58%) TCU vs. Kansas (86.55% win)
31.52% (34.89%, 7.6%), 99.2% (28.02%) Arizona St vs. Oregon St (87.64% win)
29.79% (45.61%, 0.05%), 95.1% (31.28%) Marshall vs. Rice (65.27% win)
23.96% (48.14%, 3.3%), 100% (17.49%) Alabama vs. Miss St (46.07% win)
14% (N/A, N/A), 43% (32.48%) UCLA vs. BYE (0% win)
11.51% (20.19%, 0.2%), 95.7% (11.9%) Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (56.55% win)
8.11% (14.22%, 0%), 31.6% (25.61%) Auburn vs. Georgia (57.02% win)
4.53% (N/A, N/A), 10.4% (43.51%) Colo St vs. BYE (0% win)
4.43% (N/A, N/A), 16.5% (26.77%) Ole Miss vs. BYE (0% win)
4.34% (5.9%, 0%), 17.4% (24.86%) Boise St vs. SDSU (73.54% win)
4.19% (9.62%, 0.01%), 63.6% (6.57%) Wisconsin vs. Nebraska (43.45% win)
3.9% (5.07%, 0%), 20.5% (18.99%) Duke vs. Va Tech (76.81% win)
3.35% (N/A, N/A), 9.4% (35.6%) Baylor vs. BYE (0% win)
2.64% (5.11%, 0%), 24.3% (10.86%) Missouri vs. Texas A*M (51.61% win)
2.36% (7.25%, 0%), 65.9% (3.58%) Minnesota vs. Ohio St (32.54% win)
2.32% (5.39%, 0%), 17.9% (12.93%) Georgia vs. Auburn (42.98% win)
1.85% (2.86%, 0%), 15.1% (12.21%) Arizona vs. Washington (64.56% win)
0.81% (0.99%, 0%), 2.9% (27.37%) N Dame vs. N’western (81.15% win)
0.75% (1.2%, 0%), 2.4% (31.21%) Mich St vs. Maryland (62.07% win)
0.29% (N/A, N/A), 1.1% (25.51%) Kansas St vs. BYE (0% win)
0.22% (0.49%, 0%), 1.1% (19.63%) Ga Tech vs. Clemson (44.77% win)
0.19% (0.34%, 0%), 0.4% (39.39%) Clemson vs. Ga Tech (55.23% win)
0.15% (0.22%, 0%), 1.1% (12.81%) USC vs. California (67.41% win)
0.13% (0.44%, 0%), 1% (12.65%) Miami vs. Florida St (29.16% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
91.01% (98.27%, 82.5%), 100% (22.98%) Miss St vs. Alabama (53.93% win)
86.56% (92.81%, 71.36%), 100% (32.26%) Florida St vs. Miami (70.84% win)
84.71% (N/A, N/A), 100% (40.45%) Oregon vs. BYE (0% win)
74.9% (87.66%, 48.43%), 100% (30.26%) Ohio St vs. Minnesota (67.46% win)
74.67% (98.17%, 54.58%), 100% (17.49%) Alabama vs. Miss St (46.07% win)
73.28% (78.43%, 36.73%), 100% (28.02%) Arizona St vs. Oregon St (87.64% win)
66.65% (73.39%, 23.27%), 100% (54.58%) TCU vs. Kansas (86.55% win)
55.32% (66.81%, 33.71%), 100% (31.28%) Marshall vs. Rice (65.27% win)
49.13% (N/A, N/A), 100% (32.48%) UCLA vs. BYE (0% win)
47.2% (N/A, N/A), 100% (35.6%) Baylor vs. BYE (0% win)
41.78% (N/A, N/A), 93.9% (43.51%) Colo St vs. BYE (0% win)
37.77% (44.68%, 14.87%), 100% (18.99%) Duke vs. Va Tech (76.81% win)
37.45% (63.53%, 5.27%), 82.9% (39.39%) Clemson vs. Ga Tech (55.23% win)
33.77% (49.93%, 12.72%), 100% (11.9%) Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (56.55% win)
33.58% (51.45%, 9.86%), 100% (25.61%) Auburn vs. Georgia (57.02% win)
27.7% (N/A, N/A), 99.8% (26.77%) Ole Miss vs. BYE (0% win)
27.24% (35.66%, 3.81%), 99.7% (24.86%) Boise St vs. SDSU (73.54% win)
26.96% (33.04%, 0.74%), 96.8% (27.37%) N Dame vs. N’western (81.15% win)
26.88% (N/A, N/A), 95% (25.51%) Kansas St vs. BYE (0% win)
23.96% (38.48%, 0.18%), 75.7% (31.21%) Mich St vs. Maryland (62.07% win)
21.65% (46.54%, 1.46%), 87.5% (19.63%) Ga Tech vs. Clemson (44.77% win)
20.78% (29.3%, 0%), 56.2% (36.91%) LSU vs. Arkansas (70.9% win)
19.84% (28.56%, 10.53%), 100% (10.86%) Missouri vs. Texas A*M (51.61% win)
18.07% (37.69%, 3.27%), 86.3% (12.93%) Georgia vs. Auburn (42.98% win)
17.65% (32.54%, 6.2%), 100% (6.57%) Wisconsin vs. Nebraska (43.45% win)
13.04% (19.98%, 0.39%), 99.5% (12.21%) Arizona vs. Washington (64.56% win)
12.78% (26.41%, 0%), 50.7% (25.18%) Texas A*M vs. Missouri (48.39% win)
9.71% (19.2%, 5.12%), 100% (3.58%) Minnesota vs. Ohio St (32.54% win)
9.38% (27.36%, 1.97%), 54.8% (12.65%) Miami vs. Florida St (29.16% win)
8.93% (13.23%, 0.03%), 64.4% (12.81%) USC vs. California (67.41% win)
7.49% (N/A, N/A), 44.3% (15.3%) La Tech vs. BYE (0% win)
3.36% (N/A, N/A), 11.3% (29.51%) Louisville vs. BYE (0% win)
3.23% (6.25%, 0.23%), 26.4% (11.7%) Nevada vs. Air Force (49.71% win)
2.34% (3.07%, 0.04%), 10.9% (21.23%) Utah St vs. New Mexico (75.71% win)
2.31% (3.67%, 0%), 4.9% (14.15%) Florida vs. S Carolina (62.79% win)
2.08% (4.13%, 0%), 18.2% (11.42%) Air Force vs. Nevada (50.29% win)
1.21% (1.89%, 0%), 18.3% (6.59%) Iowa vs. Illinois (63.95% win)
0.97% (2.79%, 0%), 8.4% (11.43%) Rice vs. Marshall (34.73% win)
0.96% (1.63%, 0%), 5.4% (17.46%) N Illinois vs. Toledo (58.79% win)
0.83% (1.07%, 0%), 1.5% (52.21%) La Lafayette vs. La Monroe (76.95% win)
0.6% (0.97%, 0%), 1.2% (47.43%) Ga Southern vs. Navy (61.4% win)
0.59% (1.03%, 0%), 2.7% (21.4%) E Carolina vs. Cincy (56.94% win)
0.35% (0.81%, 0%), 2.3% (14.47%) Cincy vs. E Carolina (43.06% win)
0.26% (0.68%, 0%), 1.7% (14.87%) Maryland vs. Mich St (37.93% win)
0.24% (0.58%, 0%), 2.4% (9.81%) Toledo vs. N Illinois (41.21% win)
0.19% (0.26%, 0%), 1.3% (13.99%) W Michigan vs. E Michigan (72.52% win)
0.17% (0.25%, 0%), 0.4% (41.51%) Memphis vs. Tulane (67.23% win)
0.15% (0.27%, 0%), 0.7% (20.96%) Utah vs. Stanford (53.97% win)
0.14% (0.16%, 0%), 0.8% (15.73%) BGU vs. Kent St (83.59% win)
0.09% (0.15%, 0%), 0.8% (10.26%) UNC vs. Pittsburgh (57.86% win)
0.04% (0.04%, 0%), 0.1% (25.85%) C Florida vs. Tulsa (80.21% win)
0.02% (0.07%, 0%), 0.4% (4.37%) SDSU vs. Boise St (26.46% win)
0.02% (0.02%, 0%), 0% (27.25%) M Tenn St vs. Fla Int’l (74.1% win)
0.01% (N/A, N/A), 0% (13.2%) BC vs. BYE (0% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(45.45%, 30.76%), Miss St vs. Alabama (53.93% win)
(0.42%, 50.97%), Clemson vs. Ga Tech (55.23% win)
(9.18%, 37.49%), Auburn vs. Georgia (57.02% win)
(14.11%, 31.05%), Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (56.55% win)
(15.71%, 22.25%), Ohio St vs. Minnesota (67.46% win)
(12.5%, 24.23%), Florida St vs. Miami (70.84% win)
(15.82%, 13.31%), Marshall vs. Rice (65.27% win)
(2.47%, 22.35%), Missouri vs. Texas A*M (51.61% win)
(0.45%, 14.94%), Mich St vs. Maryland (62.07% win)
(5.44%, 6.74%), TCU vs. Kansas (86.55% win)
(1.56%, 8.47%), Boise St vs. SDSU (73.54% win)
(3.37%, 5.15%), Arizona St vs. Oregon St (87.64% win)
(0%, 8.52%), LSU vs. Arkansas (70.9% win)
(1.17%, 6.91%), Duke vs. Va Tech (76.81% win)
(1.01%, 6.94%), Arizona vs. Washington (64.56% win)
(0.18%, 6.08%), N Dame vs. N’western (81.15% win)
(0%, 5.07%), Air Force vs. Nevada (50.29% win)
(0.07%, 4.3%), USC vs. California (67.41% win)
(0%, 1.36%), Florida vs. S Carolina (62.79% win)
(0%, 1.01%), N Illinois vs. Toledo (58.79% win)
(0%, 0.9%), E Carolina vs. Cincy (56.94% win)
(0%, 0.73%), Utah St vs. New Mexico (75.71% win)
(0%, 0.68%), Iowa vs. Illinois (63.95% win)
(0%, 0.37%), Ga Southern vs. Navy (61.4% win)
(0%, 0.24%), La Lafayette vs. La Monroe (76.95% win)
(0%, 0.12%), Utah vs. Stanford (53.97% win)
(0%, 0.08%), Memphis vs. Tulane (67.23% win)
(0%, 0.07%), W Michigan vs. E Michigan (72.52% win)
(0%, 0.06%), UNC vs. Pittsburgh (57.86% win)
(0%, 0.02%), BGU vs. Kent St (83.59% win)

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