Simulations

Week 12 Simulation Data – 2014

PLAYOFF
Overall (w/W, w/L), if Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
71.53% (77.48%, 44.88%), 100% (48.07%) Florida St vs. BC (81.73% win)
53.57% (56.7%, 21.8%), 100% (46.52%) Ohio St vs. Indiana (91.01% win)
49.15% (49.48%, 15.84%), 100% (42.58%) Alabama vs. FCS (98.99% win)
43.42% (47.2%, 2.81%), 97.2% (43.8%) Oregon vs. Colorado (91.48% win)
43.29% (51.91%, 0.06%), 93.6% (46.2%) Marshall vs. UAB (83.36% win)
36.6% (N/A, N/A), 59.2% (61.76%) TCU vs. BYE (0% win)
33.07% (37.63%, 0.16%), 73.4% (44.9%) Miss St vs. Vanderbilt (87.81% win)
20.19% (34.15%, 0%), 93.2% (21.61%) UCLA vs. USC (59.11% win)
9.74% (14.91%, 0%), 58.7% (16.59%) Wisconsin vs. Iowa (65.32% win)
7.54% (10.72%, 0%), 37.9% (19.85%) Missouri vs. Tennessee (70.33% win)
5.5% (8.09%, 0%), 22.1% (24.86%) Ole Miss vs. Arkansas (67.98% win)
5.39% (6.6%, 0%), 14.4% (37.39%) Boise St vs. Wyoming (81.61% win)
4.81% (4.89%, 0%), 13.1% (36.66%) Georgia vs. FCS (98.29% win)
4.5% (5.45%, 0%), 14.8% (30.34%) Arizona St vs. Wash St (82.44% win)
3.67% (4.34%, 0%), 8.2% (44.61%) Colo St vs. New Mexico (84.53% win)
3.14% (4.22%, 0%), 8.5% (36.77%) Baylor vs. Oklahoma St (74.36% win)
2.38% (N/A, N/A), 7.1% (33.24%) Ga Tech vs. BYE (0% win)
1.33% (2.42%, 0%), 5.3% (25.05%) Arizona vs. Utah (54.81% win)
0.57% (1.39%, 0%), 3.4% (16.72%) USC vs. UCLA (40.89% win)
0.23% (0.36%, 0%), 0.9% (25.49%) Kansas St vs. W Virginia (63.73% win)
0.19% (0.33%, 0%), 0.5% (32.49%) Nebraska vs. Minnesota (56.7% win)
0.18% (0.25%, 0%), 0.3% (49.09%) Mich St vs. Rutgers (69.97% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0% (38.33%) Utah vs. Arizona (45.19% win)

NYS BOWL
Overall (w/W, w/L), If Win Out (probability) TEAM vs. opponent (Win%)
97.5% (98.02%, 46.53%), 100% (42.58%) Alabama vs. FCS (98.99% win)
93.09% (96.32%, 78.59%), 100% (48.07%) Florida St vs. BC (81.73% win)
88.36% (91.56%, 55.95%), 100% (46.52%) Ohio St vs. Indiana (91.01% win)
85.48% (88.82%, 49.53%), 100% (43.8%) Oregon vs. Colorado (91.48% win)
82.01% (87.33%, 43.64%), 100% (44.9%) Miss St vs. Vanderbilt (87.81% win)
77.2% (N/A, N/A), 100% (61.76%) TCU vs. BYE (0% win)
68.94% (75.05%, 38.28%), 100% (46.2%) Marshall vs. UAB (83.36% win)
58.75% (N/A, N/A), 95.2% (33.24%) Ga Tech vs. BYE (0% win)
49.89% (72.11%, 17.75%), 100% (21.61%) UCLA vs. USC (59.11% win)
47.17% (57.74%, 16.49%), 100% (36.77%) Baylor vs. Oklahoma St (74.36% win)
43.93% (51.91%, 0.32%), 97.7% (44.61%) Colo St vs. New Mexico (84.53% win)
43.82% (62.56%, 0.13%), 89% (49.09%) Mich St vs. Rutgers (69.97% win)
42.89% (43.36%, 15.78%), 88.6% (36.66%) Georgia vs. FCS (98.29% win)
38.46% (46.29%, 3.69%), 99.9% (37.39%) Boise St vs. Wyoming (81.61% win)
38.41% (47.56%, 21.16%), 100% (16.59%) Wisconsin vs. Iowa (65.32% win)
30.04% (36.15%, 1.3%), 92.2% (30.34%) Arizona St vs. Wash St (82.44% win)
27.75% (40.01%, 1.71%), 100% (24.86%) Ole Miss vs. Arkansas (67.98% win)
26.14% (47.52%, 0.19%), 99.4% (25.05%) Arizona vs. Utah (54.81% win)
25.33% (38.89%, 1.48%), 95.1% (25.49%) Kansas St vs. W Virginia (63.73% win)
21.89% (31.09%, 0.06%), 100% (19.85%) Missouri vs. Tennessee (70.33% win)
16.86% (18.12%, 0%), 28% (60.11%) Clemson vs. Georgia St (93% win)
16.43% (40.1%, 0.05%), 79.4% (16.72%) USC vs. UCLA (40.89% win)
16.13% (28.44%, 0%), 49.4% (32.49%) Nebraska vs. Minnesota (56.7% win)
15.7% (24.72%, 0.05%), 100% (15.68%) Duke vs. UNC (63.41% win)
10.25% (10.48%, 0%), 32.1% (31.84%) Auburn vs. FCS (97.8% win)
9.18% (18.28%, 0%), 25.1% (36.44%) Louisville vs. N Dame (50.21% win)
6.82% (8.49%, 1.29%), 38.8% (15.88%) La Tech vs. Old Dom (76.75% win)
4.97% (7.11%, 0%), 17.6% (28.1%) Air Force vs. SDSU (69.83% win)
3.09% (3.75%, 0.05%), 10.9% (28.07%) Utah St vs. San Jose St (82.13% win)
2.91% (6.72%, 0%), 22.2% (13.08%) Minnesota vs. Nebraska (43.3% win)
2.39% (3.27%, 0%), 4.3% (55.15%) Miami vs. Virginia (72.91% win)
1.67% (3.69%, 0%), 4.3% (38.33%) Utah vs. Arizona (45.19% win)
1.58% (2.14%, 0%), 2.5% (61.58%) La Lafayette vs. App St (73.79% win)
1.5% (2.09%, 0%), 5.5% (27.21%) N Illinois vs. Ohio (71.76% win)
1.04% (2.08%, 0%), 4.6% (22.56%) N Dame vs. Louisville (49.79% win)
1.01% (2.91%, 0%), 7.6% (13.14%) Iowa vs. Wisconsin (34.68% win)
0.44% (0.53%, 0%), 1.1% (37.47%) Cincy vs. UConn (82.42% win)
0.39% (0.72%, 0%), 2.4% (16.19%) W Michigan vs. C Michigan (53.93% win)
0.19% (0.3%, 0%), 1.2% (15.24%) Nevada vs. Fresno St (62.86% win)
0.19% (0.33%, 0%), 0.8% (21.93%) BGU vs. Toledo (56.62% win)
0.14% (0.19%, 0%), 0.2% (59.56%) Memphis vs. S Florida (72.22% win)
0.04% (0.21%, 0%), 0.2% (13.34%) BC vs. Florida St (18.27% win)
0.02% (N/A, N/A), 0% (73.9%) Ga Southern vs. BYE (0% win)
0.01% (0.02%, 0%), 0% (21.38%) UNC vs. Duke (36.59% win)

GAME SWING
(Playoff, NYS Bowl), FAVORITE vs. Underdog (Win%)
(14.78%, 45.89%), UCLA vs. USC (59.11% win)
(1.1%, 23.4%), Arizona vs. Utah (54.81% win)
(0.07%, 18.74%), Mich St vs. Rutgers (69.97% win)
(0.14%, 16.12%), Nebraska vs. Minnesota (56.7% win)
(5.17%, 11.05%), Wisconsin vs. Iowa (65.32% win)
(2.59%, 12.26%), Ole Miss vs. Arkansas (67.98% win)
(8.62%, 6.11%), Marshall vs. UAB (83.36% win)
(0.13%, 13.56%), Kansas St vs. W Virginia (63.73% win)
(3.18%, 9.2%), Missouri vs. Tennessee (70.33% win)
(1.08%, 10.57%), Baylor vs. Oklahoma St (74.36% win)
(0%, 10.14%), Louisville vs. N Dame (50.21% win)
(4.56%, 5.32%), Miss St vs. Vanderbilt (87.81% win)
(5.95%, 3.40%), Florida St vs. BC (81.73% win)
(1.21%, 7.83%), Boise St vs. Wyoming (81.61% win)
(0%, 9.03%), Duke vs. UNC (63.41% win)
(0.67%, 7.98%), Colo St vs. New Mexico (84.53% win)
(3.78%, 3.34%), Oregon vs. Colorado (91.48% win)
(0.95%, 6.11%), Arizona St vs. Wash St (82.44% win)
(3.13%, 3.2%), Ohio St vs. Indiana (91.01% win)
(0%, 2.14%), Air Force vs. SDSU (69.83% win)
(0%, 1.67%), La Tech vs. Old Dom (76.75% win)
(0%, 1.26%), Clemson vs. Georgia St (93% win)
(0%, 0.88%), Miami vs. Virginia (72.91% win)
(0.33%, 0.52%), Alabama vs. FCS (98.99% win)
(0%, 0.66%), Utah St vs. San Jose St (82.13% win)
(0%, 0.59%), N Illinois vs. Ohio (71.76% win)
(0%, 0.56%), La Lafayette vs. App St (73.79% win)
(0.08%, 0.47%), Georgia vs. FCS (98.29% win)
(0%, 0.33%), W Michigan vs. C Michigan (53.93% win)
(0%, 0.23%), Auburn vs. FCS (97.8% win)
(0%, 0.14%), BGU vs. Toledo (56.62% win)
(0%, 0.11%), Nevada vs. Fresno St (62.86% win)
(0%, 0.09%), Cincy vs. UConn (82.42% win)
(0%, 0.05%), Memphis vs. S Florida (72.22% win)

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