SEC Preview

Once again, the SEC West will play the role of Big Brother to the SEC East. After 10,000 simulations, only 1 SEC West team averaged a losing season in-conference, Arkansas. Yet the Razorbacks and every other West team averaged 7-5 or better, while only Missouri, Georgia, and Florida did so in the East.

Still, the wilder divisional fight may occur in the East. Florida, Georgia, and Missouri all won the division at least 22% of the time. In the West, Alabama is overwhelmingly favored at over 51%. After Alabama Georgia, Missouri, Ole Miss, and Florida round out the Top 5 most likely SEC Champs.

Surprisingly, while Missouri on average finishes with a better record in SEC play, Georgia more often represents the East in Atlanta. This is because the Bulldogs play the Tide this year, weighing down their expected wins. Yet Georgia is favored over Missouri and is more likely to then win any tie-breakers.

The West is not wholly downtrodden by ‘Bama. All 7 members have greater than 8% chance of reaching a New Years Six game. Tennessee, at 4.28% would be SEC team #11. The Mississippi teams round out the Top 5, followed sequentially by LSU, Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas.

Those same Top 5 teams are also at over 6% for making the playoff. Alabama is the only team to break 8%, ascending all the way to a 27% likelihood of a Cotton or Orange appearance. Alabama almost reaches 10% odds of winning the National Championship.

Though the odds are long, after 10,000 simulated years even Vanderbilt and Kentucky each win the National Championship a pair of times, win the SEC 7 and 46 times respectively, and finish undefeated once and thrice. At this point in the year, anything is possible.

The Output

W-L (cW-cL) Team (NC/FF/NYS) (CC/DC) undefeated
8.7319-3.2681(5.2046-2.7954) Missouri (152/701/2613)(1126/2711) 161
8.2973-3.7027(5.0947-2.9053) Georgia (185/798/2799)(1485/3557) 92
7.1556-4.8444(4.3072-3.6928) Florida (56/264/1253)(698/2217) 28
6.4707-5.5293(3.5275-4.4725) Tennessee (14/81/428)(199/645) 13
6.2625-5.7375(3.6535-4.3465) S Carolina (6/69/415)(188/671) 5
5.1279-6.8721(2.4685-5.5315) Kentucky (2/21/99)(46/161) 3
3.4293-8.5707(1.4822-6.5178) Vanderbilt (2/5/31)(7/38) 1

9.2208-2.7792(5.6931-2.3069) Alabama (968/2715/5366)(3576/5140) 448
8.2713-3.7287(4.7343-3.2657) Ole Miss (185/727/2334)(779/1360) 112
8.1373-3.8627(4.5367-3.4633) Miss St (169/624/2249)(579/941) 105
7.5217-4.4783(4.0596-3.9404) LSU (100/415/1636)(489/959) 51
7.3423-4.6577(3.9095-4.0905) Auburn (61/247/1038)(374/721) 40
6.9387-5.0613(3.8870-4.1130) Texas A*M (37/177/830)(252/496) 27
6.7378-5.2622(3.4416-4.5584) Arkansas (44/204/878)(202/383) 18


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