We’ve run 10,000 simulations of the upcoming year for the Big 12 and it looks like they could find themselves on the outside of the playoff once again. Texas alone made the playoffs every single season they finished 12-0. Poor out-of-conference scheduling is the downfall of most of the conference. Even second-hand patsies will make ‘strong’ conference opponents appear overrated.
TCU is head of the Big 12 class, averaging a 10-2 record and a 38% chance of winning the conference. Baylor and Kansas State vie for second spot. Baylor edges KSU averaging one half more win in conference, yet KSU takes home the conference crown 3% more often than Baylor. This is because in 3-way ties with Baylor and TCU (or most any other 3-way tie), Kansas State’s superior out-of-conference schedule gives them a leg up.
Oklahoma is a strong #4, and could scramble to the top of the conference. Texas has the next strongest team, but West Virginia claims #5 most likely to win the conference. This is the downside of a strong schedule, where Texas more often drops an extra game out of conference and therefore does not win as many 3-way ties as the Mountaineers.
This phenomenon also affects the Longhorns’ New Years Six chances, only 8%. Oklahoma, Kansas State, Baylor, and TCU respectively have NYS chances of 19%, 23%, 33%, and 48%. OK State also has a 5% chance of making the NYS and a fledgeling 2% chance of winning the conference.
Oklahoma is third most likely to make the playoff, at 4%, behind Baylor (7%) and TCU (16%) and just ahead of Kansas State (3%). Texas and West Virginia both clock in above 1%, the same percentage given for Baylor to win the whole thing. TCU is estimated to win only 3% of the time.
While the Big 12 may be at the bottom of the Power Five totem pole, all 10 teams recorded playoff appearances in 10,000 years of simulations. Even Iowa State won the conference 32 times. Buckle up, it’ll be an exciting ride.
W-L (cW-cL) Team (NC/FF/NYS) (CC/DC) undefeated
9.5161-2.4839(6.9377-2.0623) TCU (320/1661/4865)(3844/0) 855
8.8661-3.1339(6.1951-2.8049) Baylor (106/779/3309)(1496/0) 372
8.0567-3.9433(5.6762-3.3238) Kansas St (59/383/2354)(1786/0) 160
7.8720-4.1280(5.5385-3.4615) Oklahoma (54/443/1960)(1349/0) 120
6.2941-5.7059(4.7066-4.2934) Texas (8/127/832)(361/0) 29
6.6570-5.3430(4.6317-4.3683) W Virginia (9/106/893)(765/0) 38
6.5867-5.4133(4.2706-4.7294) OK State (11/68/518)(243/0) 29
4.4396-7.5604(2.8865-6.1135) Texas Tech (1/10/93)(49/0) 6
3.6071-8.3929(2.3542-6.6458) Kansas (0/17/64)(75/0) 2
3.1324-8.8676(1.8029-7.1971) Iowa St (0/4/36)(32/0) 1