Preview

Non Power Five Preview

The Computer simulated the season 10,000 times to find who was the best of the best from the Independents and Group of Five conferences.

We’ve split this set of teams between Contenders (>9%) and Everybody Else (6% and less). Because the Computer bases team strength off of last year, Boise State and Marshall are the only teams “Contending” for a playoff spot.

Notre Dame, the independent and nationally ranked team is down at the 8th most likely non Power-Five team to make a New Years Six bowl. This is mostly because their schedule is highly variable (all of their opponents may be duds in a given year) and because the computer just doesn’t think they’ll be that good.

Northern Illinois is the #3 pick for “Busting” the NYS, favored to win the MAC 31% of the time. Western Kentucky has an ‘arduous’ schedule against 2 SEC schools and Marshall before getting to the CUSA championship, they place 4th. MWC-West runner ups: Air Force, Colorado State, and Utah State are also contenders; combined with Boise State, the winner of this division should have a chance of busting the NYS going into Championship Saturday.

Memphis and Cincy are the computer’s picks for winning the West and East divisions of the American Athletic Conference; they are contenders. La Tech, the overwhelming favorite for the CUSA-West, is also a favorite, likely playing Marshall or Western Kentucky in the CUSA Championship Game.

La Lafayette is the top team among Everybody Else. The Computer Favors them, barely, over Georgia Southern for winning the Sun Belt Conference. The Ragin Cajuns are also one of the few Group of Five teams favored over a P5 team, over Kentucky. The others are Boise State over Washington and Western Kentucky over Vanderbilt.

Over 10,000 simulations, only the Hilltoppers succeeded in making the playoffs everytime they finished undefeated (minimum 10 such times). The deck is stacked against these teams, but in 10,000 years even Charlotte scored a trip to the playoffs Boise is also listed with a 2% chance of winning the National Championship. Anything is possible.

The Output – The Contenders

W-L (cW-cL) Team (NC/FF/NYS) (CC/DC) undefeated
9.8137-2.1863(6.6025-1.3975) Boise St (288/1624/3748)(3879/4629) 1043
10.1868-1.8132(6.6313-1.3687) Marshall (95/1143/2872)(3588/5545) 1132
8.7339-3.2661(6.1749-1.8251) N Illinois (33/368/1381)(3137/4433) 142
8.0830-3.9170(5.4108-2.5892) W Kentucky (40/439/1257)(1673/2770) 128
8.2396-3.7604(5.4773-2.5227) Air Force (49/399/1233)(1888/2574) 119
8.5915-3.4085(5.9290-2.0710) Memphis (31/339/1228)(2885/4956) 169
8.3263-3.6737(5.3203-2.6797) Colo St (36/361/1161)(1339/1804) 163
7.3197-4.6803(7.3197-4.6803) N Dame (36/300/1026)(6514/0) 65
7.9081-4.0919(5.6941-2.3059) La Tech (35/292/1014)(2436/5368) 81
7.4349-4.5651(5.0435-2.9565) Utah St (39/282/963)(605/806) 67
8.2859-3.7141(5.4463-2.5537) Cincy (24/286/932)(2286/4317) 169

The Output – Everybody Else

W-L (cW-cL) Team (NC/FF/NYS) (CC/DC) undefeated
8.5727-3.4273(5.9590-2.0410) La Lafayette (9/143/639)(3230/0) 329
7.9983-4.0017(5.3738-2.6262) Toledo (7/153/571)(1010/1567) 110
7.7862-4.2138(5.3860-2.6140) C Florida (13/147/527)(1357/2957) 79
7.2168-4.7832(5.5362-2.4638) BGU (6/124/469)(2035/5008) 44
7.2840-3.7160(5.6447-2.3553) Navy (8/118/446)(1295/2637) 115
6.7727-5.2273(5.1260-2.8740) W Michigan (11/87/399)(1503/2327) 6
8.2741-3.7259(6.2368-1.7632) Ga Southern (8/92/349)(2429/0) 163
6.5524-5.4476(6.5524-5.4476) BYU (16/84/339)(2912/0) 23
7.4542-4.5458(5.0957-2.9043) Rice (6/87/330)(749/2053) 50
6.7303-5.2697(4.8405-3.1595) E Carolina (6/75/236)(559/1328) 33
6.8454-5.1546(4.5291-3.4709) Houston (5/57/219)(843/1891) 40
6.9564-5.0436(4.5265-3.4735) UTEP (6/72/206)(509/1605) 44
7.0217-4.9783(4.9110-3.0890) Nevada (7/47/192)(1001/4366) 22
6.7228-5.2772(4.3252-3.6748) Old Dom (3/43/179)(404/1027) 20
6.5354-5.4646(4.2710-3.7290) Temple (2/35/166)(379/873) 15
6.4666-5.5334(4.4965-3.5035) M Tenn St (4/41/148)(231/455) 14
6.2196-5.7804(4.3907-3.6093) C Michigan (5/33/125)(728/1404) 20
6.4097-5.5903(4.5213-3.4787) App St (1/27/119)(448/0) 37
6.7604-5.2396(4.7949-3.2051) Texas St (1/17/114)(798/0) 24
6.4809-5.5191(5.0137-2.9863) Arkansas St (1/15/110)(1592/0) 18
6.2604-5.7396(4.5514-3.4486) S Alabama (1/17/104)(691/0) 30
4.9008-7.0992(4.0752-3.9248) UTSA (2/26/93)(213/646) 6
6.2151-5.7849(4.2284-3.7716) Ohio (2/20/87)(673/2196) 17
6.1775-5.8225(4.0540-3.9460) SDSU (0/23/86)(575/2865) 12
5.4693-6.5307(3.9556-4.0444) Fresno St (3/22/72)(370/1584) 3
4.6297-7.3703(3.0897-4.9103) FAU (2/21/57)(54/117) 7
4.6148-7.3852(3.0534-4.9466) S Florida (0/18/53)(161/381) 2
5.2317-6.7683(2.7566-5.2434) Wyoming (0/7/43)(58/91) 6
4.9552-7.0448(3.4170-4.5830) Buffalo (1/15/40)(314/1195) 17
5.1193-6.8807(2.7344-5.2656) New Mexico (3/13/37)(55/96) 7
4.5497-7.4503(3.2329-4.7671) E Michigan (1/9/33)(82/145) 8
4.5333-7.4667(3.1312-4.8688) So Miss (1/9/32)(80/237) 0
5.1668-6.8332(3.8098-4.1902) Akron (0/9/32)(239/859) 10
4.8062-7.1938(2.9045-5.0955) Ball St (0/5/30)(73/124) 3
4.4896-7.5104(2.5266-5.4734) Fla Int’l (1/6/28)(28/67) 3
3.7626-8.2374(2.0067-5.9933) N Texas (1/5/26)(28/91) 3
5.4869-7.5131(3.5658-4.4342) La Monroe (2/2/22)(280/0) 2
4.3839-8.6161(2.5784-5.4216) Hawaii (0/5/22)(80/413) 0
3.7973-8.2027(2.4897-5.5103) San Jose St (0/7/21)(74/305) 3
4.5407-7.4593(2.9350-5.0650) Tulane (1/4/20)(92/248) 3
3.4738-8.5262(2.1672-5.8328) Tulsa (2/8/19)(40/106) 4
3.8052-8.1948(2.8307-5.1693) Kent St (0/3/19)(107/355) 2
3.7732-7.2268(3.7732-7.2268) Army (0/6/15)(574/0) 13
3.1229-8.8771(1.9548-6.0452) SMU (0/1/15)(54/162) 1
3.2451-8.7549(2.7138-5.2862) New Mexico St (0/3/14)(178/0) 1
3.1629-8.8371(2.3928-5.6072) UMass (0/1/13)(46/183) 0
3.2060-8.7940(1.8430-6.1570) UConn (0/2/10)(49/144) 0
3.9171-8.0829(3.0465-4.9535) Troy (0/2/10)(238/0) 0
3.1168-8.8832(2.0767-5.9233) UNLV (0/0/8)(76/467) 0
3.4694-8.5306(2.5823-5.4177) Miami(OH) (0/1/8)(53/204) 1
3.2132-8.7868(1.7474-6.2526) Georgia St (0/0/7)(35/0) 1
2.6368-9.3632(1.8494-6.1506) Idaho (0/1/3)(81/0) 0
2.0018-9.9982(0.9905-7.0095) Charlotte (0/1/1)(7/19) 1

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