Playoff Picture

Week 1 Playoff Picture

Tier Ia – Win Out, 100%
Utah, USC, Stanford, Ohio State, Nebraska, Minnesota, Mich St, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Miss State, LSU, Florida, Auburn, Alabama

Tier Ib – > 95%
99% 13-0 UCLA
99% 13-0 Ga Tech
99% 13-0 Wisconsin
99% 13-0 Georgia
99% 13-0 Florida St
99% 13-0 Missouri
99% 13-0 Arizona St
98% 13-0 Oregon
98% 13-0 Clemson
97% 13-0 Arizona
96% 12-1 Mich St
96% 13-0 Louisville
96% 12-0 Texas
95% 13-0 Utah St
95% 13-0 NC State
95% 12-1 Ohio State

Tier IIa >75%
94% 13-0 WKU
94% 12-0 Oklahoma
94% 12-0 N Dame
92% 12-1 Minnesota
91% 13-0 Air Force
88% 13-0 BYU
88% 12-0 W Virginia
88% 12-1 Alabama
87% 12-1 Arkansas
87% 12-0 OKSt
87% 13-0 La Tech
86% 11-1 LSU
86% 12-0 Baylor
86% 12-0 TCU
85% 12-1 USC
83% 13-0 Duke
82% 12-1 Utah
82% 12-1 Florida
81% 12-0 KSU
79% 12-1 Stanford
79% 12-1 Nebraska
77% 12-1 Ole Miss
77% 12-1 Georgia
77% 12-1 Miss St
75% 12-1 Wisconsin

Tier IIb >50%
73% 13-0 Boise St
71% 13-0 BGU
71% 12-1 Texas A&M
69% 13-0 Colo st
66% 12-1 UCLA
66% 12-1 Auburn
66% 13-0 ECU
65% 13-0 Memphis
64% 13-0 NIU
64% 12-1 Ga Tech
63% 13-0 Rice
61% 12-1 Mich St (non-champion)
60% 12-1 Ohio State (non-champion)
60% 12-1 Va Tech
60% 12-0 Toledo
59% 13-0 Cincy
59% 13-0 Temple
58% 13-0 UCF
58% 13-0 Old Dom
57% 13-0 Houston
55% 12-1 Florida St
54% 12-1 Clemson
53% 12-1 Arizona St
53% 12-1 Oregon
53% 13-0 UTEP
52% 11-1 LSU (non-champion)
50% 12-1 Missouri

Tier IIIa >20%
46% 12-1 Arizona
40% 12-1 Utah (non-champion)
40% 12-1 Alabama (non-champion)
37% 13-0 Marshall
37% 12-1 Utah st
37% 12-1 Louisville
36% 11-1 Ohio State
34% 12-1 NC State
33% 12-1 Minnesota (non-champion)
33% 13-0 Navy
33% 11-1 Mich St
33% 10-1 LSU
32% 11-1 Alabama
32% 11-1 Arkansas
30% 12-1 WMU
29% 12-1 Nebraska (non-champion)
29% 11-1 USC
27% 12-1 WKU
26% 11-1 Michigan
25% 12-1 Georgia (non-champion)
24% 11-1 Nebraska
24% 11-1 Texas
23% 11-1 N Dame
21% 11-1 Georgia
20% 12-1 Ole Miss (non-champion)
20% 11-1 Ole Miss

Tier IIIb >10%
19% 11-1 Oklahoma
18% 11-1 Utah
17% 12-1 UCLA (non-champion)
17% 11-1 Maryland
17% 12-1 Air Force
17% 12-0 S Alabama
17% 11-1 Miss St
15% 12-1 La Tech
15% 12-1 Ga Tech (non-champion)
14% 11-1 Penn State
13% 12-1 Florida St (non-champion)
13% 11-1 Texas A&M
13% 12-1 Arizona (non-champion)
12% 11-1 TCU
12% 12-0 App St
12% 12-1 Wisconsin (non-champion)
12% 12-1 MTSU
11% 12-0 Texas St
11% 12-1 ECU
11% 11-1 Ga Tech
10% 12-1 BYU
10% 11-1 Rutgers
9% 12-0 Ga Southern (only other undefeated >5%)

Wisconsin is out and we are down to 9 Playoff Favorites. This week Oregon and Michigan State will duke it out to remain at the top. Ohio State stays on top of the pile with their 41-24 victory over Virginia Tech; expect them to stay there all year long.

Favorites (>10% and >95% if win out):
Big Ten: Ohio State (1-0, 53%), Michigan State (1-0, 23%)
SEC: Alabama (1-0, 32%)
ACC: Florida State (1-0, 29%), Georgia Tech (1-0, 10%)
Big 12: TCU (1-0, 21%)
Pac-12: UCLA (1-0, 16%), Oregon (1-0, 10%)
Other: Boise State (1-0, 18%)

Need Help (<95% even if win out):

Marshall has seen their numbers climb from 11% and 80%, but don’t expect anymore dramatic jumps. The Thundering Herd have no more Power Five teams on their schedule and only Western Kentucky is listed as a Contender this year.
Other: Marshall (1-0, 12%, 87%)

Contenders (5% to 9%):

We have 5 new additions to the contenders category. LSU advances mostly because their strength of schedule gets a bump after not playing this week’s FCS sacrificial lamb. Western Kentucky and Notre Dame are both riding high after victories over Vanderbilt and Texas respectively, and both still have contenders bolstering their future schedules. Oklahoma advances on the strength of their 41-3 shallacking of Akron as well as the rising tide caused by other sinking ships. Wisconsin falls a single category but is still considered a lock for the playoff should they win out; the computer simply thinks the chances of that are low.
Pac-12 Utah (1-0), USC (1-0), Arizona (1-0)
SEC: LSU (0-0), Georgia (1-0), Missouri (7%), Ole Miss (1-0), Miss St (1-0)
Big 12; Baylor (1-0), Oklahoma (1-0)
ACC: Clemson (1-0)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (0-1)
Other: Western Kentucky (1-0), Notre Dame (1-0)

Long Shots (1% to 4%):

Climbing from the goo of unlikelihood emerge Tennessee, South Carolina, and Maryland, each looking impressive against meagre competition. Minnesota and Nebraska maintain their positions as Long Shots despite their losses; on the whole, the SEC is up, the Big Ten is down.
SEC: Auburn (1-0), Texas A&M (1-0), Florida (1-0), Arkansas (1-0), Tennessee (1-0), South Carolina (1-0)
Big 12: Kansas State (1-0), West Virginia (1-0), OK State (1-0)
ACC: NC State (1-0)
Big Ten: Minnesota (0-1), Nebraska (0-1), Rutgers (1-0), Maryland (1-0)
Pac-12: NONE
Others: Northern Illinois (1-0), Memphis (1-0), Air Force (1-0), Cincy (1-0), Colorado State (1-0), BYU (1-0), Toledo (0-0), Utah St (1-0), La Tech (1-0), Temple (1-0), Navy (1-0), East Carolina (1-0), Rice (1-0)

Miracles:

Losing a single game to a power five team should not disqualify you from reaching the playoffs. But losing the first such game of the season sets you up for long odds of running the table. The Computer gives each of these teams between 1 and 99 playoff berths… in 10,000 simulations, but don’t put any money down on any of these teams winning the whole thing.

Texas (0-1), Arizona State (0-1), Stanford (0-1), Penn State (0-1), Louisville (0-1), Central Florida (0-1), Bowling Green (0-1), Louisiana Lafayette (0-1), Western Michigan (0-1), and all other unlisted.

Eliminated:

Better luck next year. Losing to an FCS team (or Hawaii) is not technically a call for elimination, but in 10,000 years the computer just cannot find a way for any of these teams to make the playoffs.

Kansas (0-1), Colorado (0-1), Washington State (0-1), Army (0-1), Kent State (0-1), Troy (0-1), New Mexico State (0-1), Georgia State (0-1)

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s