Playoff Picture

Week 2 Playoff Picture

Michigan State knocks off Oregon and Boise State too falls from the list of Playoff Favorites. New to the mix are LSU, who defeated the other ‘MSU’ in their season opener, Utah, who defeated in-state rival Utah State, and Western Kentucky, who now carries the torch for the Group of Five teams.

Favorites (>10% and >95% if win out):
Big Ten: Ohio State (2-0, 51%), Michigan State (2-0, 31%)
SEC: Alabama (2-0, 30%), LSU (1-0, 16%)
ACC: Florida State (1-0, 27%), Georgia Tech (2-0, 10%)
Big 12: TCU (2-0, 21%)
Pac-12: UCLA (2-0, 17%), Utah (2-0, 12%)
Other: Western Kentucky (2-0, 10%)

Contenders (5% to 9%):

Not much has happened in the realm of contenders this past week. Mississippi State dropped out following their loss to LSU. BYU ascended to the contender circle after a second last minute Hail Mary pass. Toledo, another team whose opener was cancelled, also beat a ranked SEC team, Arkansas, and is now considered a contender. And finally Memphis capitalized against a wayward Kansas team and could well be the class of the American Athletic Conference.

Pac-12 USC (2-0), Arizona (2-0)
SEC: Georgia (2-0), Missouri (2-0), Ole Miss (2-0)
Big 12; Baylor (2-0), Oklahoma (2-0)
ACC: Clemson (2-0)
Big Ten: Wisconsin (1-1)
Other: Notre Dame (2-0), BYU (2-0), Toledo (1-0), Memphis (2-0)

Long Shots (1% to 4%):

Lots of teams falling into the Longshots category, but let us first look at the up and coming teams. Kentucky took care of business against South Carolina while Houston upset a plummeting Louisville. Duke rose, defeating a local FCS team, while Ohio, Western Michigan and Bowling Green all scrounge back into the Long Shot category on the back of an insurgent MAC and strong showings against the Big Ten.

Oregon, Boise State, Mississippi State, and Marshall all fell to this category after high hopes in the preseason. Time will tell if they can again ascend the ranks.

SEC: Auburn (2-0), Texas A&M (2-0), Florida (2-0), Mississippi State (1-1), Kentucky (2-0)
Big 12: Kansas State (2-0), West Virginia (2-0), OK State (2-0)
ACC: NC State (2-0), Duke (2-0)
Big Ten: Minnesota (1-1), Nebraska (1-1),
Pac-12: Oregon (1-1)
Others: Northern Illinois (2-0), Air Force (2-0), Navy (2-0), Temple (2-0), Boise State (1-1), Houston (2-0), Marshall (1-1), Ohio (2-0), Western Michigan (1-1), Bowling Green (1-1),

Miracles:

3 SEC teams fell to less than 1% of making the playoffs. Not to say none of these teams could run the table… it’d just take a Miracle. 2 Big Ten teams were similarly upset. And six mid-major programs are once again turning their sights to their own conference races after early hopes of an undefeated season were dashed.

Arkansas (1-1), Tennessee (1-1), South Carolina (1-1), Rutgers (1-1), Maryland (1-1), Cincy (1-1), Colorado State (1-1), Utah St (1-1), La Tech (1-1), East Carolina (1-1), Rice (1-1), and all others unlisted.

Eliminated:

The Sun Belt is just about eliminated, a formality considering most wrote them off before the year even began. A few other winless squads join them. Expect about a dozen new members here each week.

Wyoming, UNLV, San Jose St, UTEP, Akron, Idaho, Arkansas St, La Lafayette, La Monroe, Texas State, Georgia Southern, Kansas, Colorado, Washington State, Army, Kent State, Troy, New Mexico State, Georgia State

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