Week 7 New Years Six Preview

There were a couple big games in the Big Ten and SEC last week, but the favorites in large part won, leaving the New Years Six picture very much the same. Let us take a look at how each division is shaking out, looking at every team that controls its own fate.

68% Florida State (vs. Georgia Tech 84%) NY6: (4849+1242)
31% Clemson (vs. Miami 73%) NY6: (2193+2905)
<1% Syracuse (vs. Pittsburgh 27%) NY6: (6+0)

Syracuse has lost its third game in a row, losing in triple overtime to Virginia, yet they still control their destiny with games yet to be played against both Florida State and Clemson. Florida State and Clemson maintained their unblemished records against Louisville and Boston College, respectively, and this week line up against Georgia Tech and Miami.

45% Pittsburgh (vs. Syracuse 72%) NY6: (1251+111)
25% Duke (vs. Virginia Tech 68%) NY6: (853+69)
21% UNC (vs. Virginia 67%) NY6: (628+21)
5% Miami (vs. Clemson 26%) NY6: (157+21)

Duke slipped during their bye week as other division contenders won their conference games. Pittsburgh escaped narrowly against Georgia Tech. This week all three 1-loss teams play difficult but winnable games. If Miami wants to stay relavant, they’ll have to upset the Clemson Tigers.

Big 12
53% TCU (bye) NY6: (5363+996)
19% OK State (vs. Kansas 91%) NY6: (1961+2141)
17% Baylor (vs. Iowa State 87%) NY6: (1749+2639)
9% Oklahoma (vs. Texas Tech 65%) NY6: (926+1724)

Baylor won this past week against a West Virginia team that doesn’t look ready for the top half of the Big 12 table; the Bears will get yet another easy test in Iowa State until their difficult December road. Oklahoma BLANKED Kansas State and again looks like a contender, yet to play the three undefeated Big 12 teams. Oklahoma is the only favorite with a significant test this week.

Big Ten-East
58% Ohio State (vs. Rutgers 85%) NY6: (4200+4323)
38% Michigan State (vs. Indiana 85%) NY6: (2700+5348)

Michigan State grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat this week, and the Big Ten East has devolved into a 1-game division (OSU vs. MSU). Both teams are heavily favored this week.

Big Ten-West
87% Iowa (bye) NY6: (2614+1974)

Iowa dismantled Northwestern and is now comfortably undefeated and on top of the Big Ten West, projected to win the conference 1/4 of the time and make the NY6 an additional 1/5.

Pac-12 North
78% Stanford (vs. Washington 73%) NY6: (3311+1938)
13% California (vs. UCLA 44%) NY6: (445+873)

Stanford looked outstanding against UCLA last week, we’ll see if California can keep pace against the same; the Bruins are once again favored, but we’ll see if they can rebound.

Pac-12 South
86% Utah (vs. USC 77%) NY6: (5347+2231)

On account of Utah’s undefeated record, this is the game all eye-balls will be looking toward. The computer gives the Utes favorable odds, given the Trojans off-field implosion. A loss by Utah will ensure no undefeated team gets left out of the playoff.

92% Florida (bye) NY6: (3488+1452)

Florida lost to LSU last week, but they still have a stranglehold on the division. The loss does leave the Gators with little room for error if they want to make the playoff.

61% LSU (vs. Western Kentucky 73%) NY6: (3977+3405)
5% Ole Miss (vs. Texas A&M 43%) NY6: (275+343)

Ole Miss lost to Memphis, yet still holds onto the driver’s seat in making the SEC Championship. LSU is now the big dog in the SEC West, but if Ole Miss stumbles again, that game against Alabama will loom large. LSU is on upset alert this week against Western Kentucky, who themselves make the NY6 99.6% of the time should they go 12-1.

Teams controlling their fate within Go5 conferences
*44% Memphis (vs. Tulsa 82%) Win AAC-26%
*34% Toledo (vs. UMass 90%) Win MAC-37%
*23% Temple (vs. East Carolina 66%) Win AAC-30%
*16% Houston (vs. Central Florida 88%) Win AAC-16%
14% Western Kentucky (vs. LSU 26%) Win CUSA-36%
11% Marshall (vs. North Texas 91%) Win CUSA-23%
7% Western Michigan (vs. Miami(OH) 88%)
6% Bowling Green (vs. Kent State 75%)
5% Navy (vs. Tulane 77%)
5% Utah State (vs. SDSU 66%)
*controls NY6 destiny, possibility of multiple undefeated Go5 teams

Boise State lost to Utah State this week, dropping out of the NY6 race for all intents and purposes; the Aggies now jump into the fray. Temple, Utah State, and Bowling Green all have significant challenges.

Memphis scored a big upset against Ole Miss last week, perhaps even looking at the playoff if they go undefeated. Can Western Kentucky score a similar upset?

Other teams with >5% NY6 chances
54% Alabama (vs. Tennessee 80%) Win SEC-17%
42% Notre Dame (bye)
21% Texas A&M (vs. Ole Miss 56%) Win SEC-2%
17% Michigan (bye) Win Big Ten <1%
13% UCLA (vs. California 55%) Win Pac 12-3%
8% Penn State (vs. Maryland 70%) Win Big Ten <1%
8% Mississippi State (vs. Kentucky 64%) Win SEC <1%
6% BYU (vs. FCS 97%)
6% Arizona (vs. Washington State 62%) Win Pac 12-1%
5% Auburn (vs. Arkansas 67%) Win SEC <1%
5% Nebraska (vs. Northwestern 54%) Win Big Ten-2%
5% Georgia (bye) Win SEC-1%

Alabama and Notre Dame continue to shine bright among those teams that can win out yet not win a conference. Texas A&M, Michigan, UCLA, and Penn State lost this past week, yet still have decent shots at the Rose or Sugar Bowls. Auburn, Nebraska, and Georgia have climbed into the rankings as well. Expect a lot of turnover in this category next week.


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