Playoff Picture

Week 11 Playoff Chances

Here are the new numbers and the relative changes to last week. Most are easy to make sense of, like 11-1 Notre Dame no longer defeating a 1-loss Stanford to end the season. 13-0 Houston surges +18%. despite Temple’s loss, as the main benefactor of the Pac-12 losses.

Tier I (100%, win-out) all teams listed as Conferences Champions unless otherwise noted
Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State, Iowa, and Oklahoma State

Tier II (>50%)
97% 12-1 Michigan State =
96% 12-1 Florida +6%
95% 12-1 Ohio State +2%
90% 11-1 Oklahoma +8%
80% 11-2 Michigan =
76% 13-0 Houston +18%

Tier III (>5%)
47% 11-1 Notre Dame -21%
47% 12-1 Ohio State (lose CCG) +9%
40% 12-1 North Carolina +1%
35% 11-2 Stanford +10%
28% 11-2 Alabama -15%
27% 12-1 Navy +3%
24% 12-1 Clemson +10%
19% 11-1 Ohio State +1%
13% 11-1 Baylor +1%
8% 11-1 TCU -21%
8% 12-1 Iowa +2%
6% 11-1 OK State +1%
5% 11-1 TCU (non-champion) =
5% 10-2 Michigan -3%
5% 10-3 USC =

Eliminated from top tiers:
Utah, UCLA, LSU, Memphis, Temple

So, things are pretty straight forward, the winners of the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12, and ACC should be in if they win out from here. Ohio State is the only team with “wiggle room” for an extra loss, provided they still win the Big Ten.

Houston is the Wild Card but likely is given more credence by the computer than the committee will give. Still, if only 3 “Power” teams finish with 1 or fewer losses, an undefeated Houston will get the nod (exception perhaps given to “brand name” 2-loss champs: Michigan and Alabama).

Conversely, Notre Dame is likely very much a contender at 11-1; brand goes a long way. Wouldn’t it be nice if the Irish simply played a play-in game against the Bedlam winner for the fourth playoff spot while these other teams are playing 13th games of their own. 😉

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