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Week 13 Playoff Chances

With Houston’s loss to lowly UConn, the Stanford-Notre Dame duo once again rockets into fifth position, both waiting for an upset at the top. Alabama is next in line if they lose to Auburn but still win the SEC.

Playoff Change Record Current Rank Note
Guarantees
100% 12-1 #1 Alabama
100% 13-0 #2 Clemson
100% 12-1 #3 Michigan St
100% 13-0 #7 Iowa
100% +4% 12-1 #8 Florida
95% +5% 11-1 #4 Oklahoma
Might Find a Way
81% +1% 11-2 #9 Michigan  need PSU to beat MSU
71% +24% 11-1 #5 Notre Dame
60% +25% 11-2 #10 Stanford
54% +14% 12-1 #13 UNC
48% +20% 11-2 #1 Alabama lose to Auburn, win SEC
Need More Help
26% +7% 11-1 #6 Ohio State at-large
18% +12% 11-1 #11 OK State win Big 12
16% -9% 12-1 #16 Navy AAC Champ
10% +5% 10-2 #9 Michigan beat OSU, no CCG
7% -17% 12-1 #2 Clemson lose to USC, win ACC
6% +2% 11-1 #11 OK State Baylor wins Big 12
6% -7% 11-1 #12 Baylor win Big 12
Teams who lost but are still in contention: Ohio State
Eliminated from Top Tiers with loss: TCU, USC, Houston
Eliminated from Top Tiers statistically: (none)

(source)

You’ll see some of the above numbers affected by strength of upcoming opponent (Clemson losing to USC would be worse, and less likely, than if they had lost to Wake Forest). The Computer is still about 50:50 on UNC if they win-out. Likely that accounts for the chances of Nebraska>Iowa>BT East + FSU>Florida>Alabama + Ole Miss winning the SEC + P12 South>Stanford>ND + OKSt>OU.

Alabama with wiggle room against Auburn? Well, they’d still need to win the SEC, but we have them over a 1-loss Iowa champ and any 1-loss Big 12 team not named Oklahoma.

Baylor is languishing at 6% if they win out against TCU and Texas AND win the Big 12… Strength of Schedule. Not listed is Toledo making the playoffs 1 time in 10,000 simulations. “So you’re saying there’s a chance.”

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