The numbers have been run and, besides Florida’s chances of defeating Alabama, these numbers look rather accurate. Here are each team’s chances at making the playoff given a certain record.
|100%||even||12-1||#1 Alabama||71% win over Florida|
|100%||even||13-0||#3 Clemson||63% win over UNC|
|100%||even||12-1||#5 Michigan St||52% over Iowa|
|100%||even||13-0||#6 Iowa||47% win over Michigan St|
|Need Some Help|
|52%||-2%||12-1||#8 UNC||36% win over Clemson|
|43%||-17%||11-2||#7 Stanford||66% win over USC|
|16%||-10%||11-1||#4 Ohio State||at large|
|Teams who lost but are still in contention: (none)|
|Eliminated from Top Tiers with loss: Florida, Notre Dame, Navy, OK State, Michigan, Baylor|
|Eliminated from Top Tiers statistically: (none)|
A Wild Card Game between Ohio State and Notre Dame would likely complicate things, but it would be better than letting Ohio State in without playing a difficult 13th game.
The way the computer does tie-breakers, UNC gets in if Alabama or Stanford lose; Stanford gets in if Alabama or Clemson, but not both, lose; and Ohio State gets in if Alabama and either Clemson or Stanford lose.
The results do have some baffling qualities. It is difficult to tell just what circumstances lead to UNC, Stanford, or Ohio State making the playoffs.
No team makes the playoff with a loss this week.
Who do you have in the playoff? Vote Here.