Penultimate Playoff Probabilities

The numbers have been run and, besides Florida’s chances of defeating Alabama, these numbers look rather accurate. Here are each team’s chances at making the playoff given a certain record.

Playoff Change Record Current Rank Note
100% even 12-1 #1 Alabama 71% win over Florida
100% +5% 11-1 #2 Oklahoma
100% even 13-0 #3 Clemson 63% win over UNC
100% even 12-1 #5 Michigan St 52% over Iowa
100% even 13-0 #6 Iowa 47% win over Michigan St
Need Some Help
52% -2% 12-1 #8 UNC 36% win over Clemson
43% -17% 11-2 #7 Stanford 66% win over USC
16% -10% 11-1 #4 Ohio State at large
Teams who lost but are still in contention: (none)
Eliminated from Top Tiers with loss: Florida, Notre Dame, Navy, OK State, Michigan, Baylor
Eliminated from Top Tiers statistically: (none)

A Wild Card Game between Ohio State and Notre Dame would likely complicate things, but it would be better than letting Ohio State in without playing a difficult 13th game.

The way the computer does tie-breakers, UNC gets in if Alabama or Stanford lose; Stanford gets in if Alabama or Clemson, but not both, lose; and Ohio State gets in if Alabama and either Clemson or Stanford lose.

The results do have some baffling qualities. It is difficult to tell just what circumstances lead to UNC, Stanford, or Ohio State making the playoffs.

No team makes the playoff with a loss this week.

Who do you have in the playoff? Vote Here.


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