Uncategorized

Week 1 Playoff Picture

Seven contenders lost this past week and are still very much in contention going forward: USC, LSU, Ole Miss, OU, ND, UCLA, and… CSU. The term “chaos” might be used; the window for making the playoff is widening not narrowing.

The number of teams eliminated after Week 1? 6; its hard to overcome losses to the Sun Belt… or to be Auburn in the crowded SEC West.

The number of teams joining the fray? Texas and Washington, plus a half-dozen mid-majors who saw their chances of a perfect season get a bump after defeating opponent #1.

The below is a list of teams’ chances to get into the playoff, given a certain season outcome. Only outcomes with a >1% chance (100 out of 10,000) of occurring are included.

The +/- analyzes the difference between last week and this week’s chances. Most teams saw their chances improve, meaning there was more chaos than expected at the top of the rankings. Some variance is simply due to low sample-size while other is due to the timing of a loss (ex. a 12-1 LSU team will have won 12 games in a row over sizeable competition, better than having that 1 loss be late or to dreg on their schedule, hence the +11%).

Guarantees >91%
Undefeated Alabama (100%), Arkansas (100%), California (100%), Iowa (100%, +1%), Michigan (100%), Mich St (100%), Ohio State (100%), Oregon (100%, +2%), Wisconsin (100%), Tennessee (99%, +1%). Stanford (99%, =0%), Florida St (99%, +1%), Louisville (99%, +3%). Washington (99%), Pittsburgh (98%, =0%), Texas (97%), Utah (97%, =0%), Florida (97%, +1%), Memphis (97%, +2%), Clemson (95%, +10%), Georgia (94%, -2%), S Florida (94%, +4%), Utah St (94%, +14%), Houston (93%, +7%). BYU (92%, -6%), Navy (92%, +10%)
1-Loss Champ Ohio State (98%, =0%), Wisconsin (97%, =0%), USC (97%, +1%), LSU (96%, +11%), Mich St (94%, -1%), Ole Miss (94%, +7%), Michigan (91%, +11%)
Favored >51%
Undefeated Cincy (90%, +14%), Toledo (87%), TCU (86%, =0%), OK State (84%, =0%), Texas Tech (84%, =0%), Marshall (82%), West Virginia (81%, -5%), Boise St (80%, +8%), Baylor (79%, =0%), WKU (75%), W Michigan (72%), So Miss (65%), Nevada (61%), SDSU (60%, +16%), Air Force (56%, +5%)
1-Loss Champ Penn State (84%), California (83%, =0%), Arkansas (81%, +1%), Alabama (79%, -8%), Texas A&M (75%), Oklahoma (71%, +23%), Stanford (68%, -12%), Tennessee (57%, -24%), Oregon (54%, +6%), Iowa (54%, -2%), Florida St (51%, -4%)
1-Loss At Large Notre Dame (85%, +36%), Wisconsin (61%), Ohio State (56%, +2%)
Next Loss in CCG Ohio St (79%, -5%), Mich St (58%, +7%), Wisconsin (56%), Michigan (54%, +29%)
2-Loss Champ USC (56%)
Need Help >6%
Undefeated M Tenn St (50%), C Michigan (49%), New Mexico (46%, +8%), Ga Southern (33%, -2%), S Alabama (21%)
1-Loss Champ Miami (50%, +1%), Florida (49%, +11%), Louisville (44%, +9%), Memphis (43%, +3%), Utah (40%, -3%), Washington (38%), Utah St (38%, +21%), Texas (35%), Georgia (29%, -5%), Clemson (28%, +10%), Akron (28%), Colo St (26%), Houston (24%, +3%), UNC (24%, +13%), Cincy (23%, +10%), S Florida (22%, +4%), Tulsa (20%), Navy (19%, +9%), Toledo (19%, +4%), Marshall (16%), La Tech (15%), W Virginia (15%, -4%), OK State (14%, +3%), BGU (13%), TCU (13%, +1%), WKU (10%), Temple (10%), Boise St (9%, +1%), Texas Tech (7%, -3%), Baylor (6%), UConn (6%)
1-Loss At Large Penn State (31%, +7%), Mich St (31%, =0%), Michigan (26%, +12%), BYU (24%, +3%), Alabama (20%, -10%), California (17%, -4%), Texas (17%), Arkansas (16%, -9%), Louisville (10%), Stanford (8%, -12%), Florida (6%), Texas A&M (6%), Florida St (6%)
Next Loss in CCG Alabama (25%, -23%), Stanford (21%, -5%), Florida St (10%), USC (9%), Iowa (6%)
2-Loss Champ LSU (41%), Ole Miss (34%), UCLA (21%), Notre Dame (10%), Oklahoma (7%)
Teams that lost but are still in contention: USC, LSU, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, UCLA, Colo St
Eliminated from Top Tiers with a loss: Wash St, N’western, Miss St, App St, Arkansas St, Auburn
Eliminated from Top Tiers statistically: (no one, we’ll likely see teams drop as relative conference strength solidifies and if the top teams look less likely to lose a game before the season ends)

Texas is the only team in the “Guaranteed” category from the Big 12. Schedule, schedule, schedule; and we’re not sure the Big 12 possesses that great of a schedule. TCU is the team best situated to make the playoff, given their presumed strength, but they’ll likely need fewer losses than other conference champions to be considered.

The American conference has 4 teams in the Guaranteed category: Memphis, Houston, South Florida, and Navy. Obviously Houston is favored among these teams, but if any team runs the gamut undefeated they should be in the playoff. Is the American conference stronger than the Big 12? Probably not from a talent perspective, but their schedule likely is and that should be the deciding factor between two teams with identical records.

We still have lots of football to play and one or another conference might tank in their remaining OOC games. The SEC and Pac-12 were less than stellar. The Big Ten had the largest positive swing, meaning 1 loss may be no big deal for playoff qualification, while 2 is largely negotiable.

Advertisements

One thought on “Week 1 Playoff Picture

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s