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Week 2 Playoff Picture

It looks like last week, where the rising water lifts all boats. That is, unless it was your boat which sunk, raising all the others. We’ve run the numbers to see who tastes playoff in the water.

This week it was the Big 12 which was torpedoed More teams lost than won this week and against subpar competition. If you look below, teams from the American conference have better playoff hopes than the Big 12, which is fighting the MW for 6th.

Conference USA also slumped, winning precisely 0 games against FBS competition. This resulted in our first statistic-based elimination as Louisiana Tech fell from the following leaderboard despite winning their game (against FCS competition).

Guaranteed >91%
undefeated Alabama (100%), Arkansas (100%), Florida (100%, +3%), Florida St (100%, +1%), Iowa (100%), Louisville (100%, +1%), Mich St (100%), Michigan (100%), Ohio State (100%), Oregon (100%), Texas A&M (100%*), Wisconsin (100%), Stanford (99%, =0%), Georgia (99%, +5%), Miami (99%), Utah (99%, +2%), Washington (98%, -1%), Clemson (98%, +3%), Pittsburgh (97%, -1%), Houston (97%, +4%), South Florida (96%, +2%), Texas (92%, -5%), Cincy (92%, -2%)
1-loss champ LSU (99%, +3%), Ole Miss (99%, +5%) Ohio St (99%, +1%), USC (98%, +1%), California (97%, +16%), Wisconsin (94%, -3%), Michigan St (93%, -1%), Michigan (93%, +2%), Arkansas (91%, +10%)
Favored >51%
undefeated Toledo (90%, +3%), Marshall (86%, +4%), Boise St (83%, +80%), West Virginia (79%, -2%), Air Force (76%, +20%), Western Michigan (70%, -2%), Baylor (66%, -13%), Southern Miss (65%, =0%), SDSU (65%, +5%)
1-loss champ Alabama (87%, +8%), Tennessee (73%, +16%), Florida (72%, +23%), Stanford (71%, +3%), Florida St (68%, +17%), Louisville (64%, +20%), Oregon (63%, +9%), Oklahoma (60%, -11%), Miami (56%, +6%), Georgia (52%, +23%)
next loss CCG Ohio State (83%, +4%), Michigan (62%, +8%), Wisconsin (51%, -5%)
1-loss at large Notre Dame (87%, +2%), Ohio St (55%, -1%), BYU (51%, +27%*)
2-loss champ USC (68%, +12%), LSU (61%, +20%)
Needs Help >6%
undefeated Ga Southern (49%, +16%), Central Michigan (35%, -14%)
1-loss champ Utah (50%, +10%), Clemson (47%, +19%), Washington (46%, +8%), Arizona St (44%*), Pittsburgh (42%), Iowa (41%, -13%), Akron (40%, +12%), Houston (39%, +15%), South Florida (38%, +16%), Utah St (38%, =0%), Colorado St (33%, +7%), Temple (31%, +21%), OK State (29%, +15%), Cincy (27%, +4%), UNC (26%, +2%), Miss St (24%), East Carolina (21%), Toledo (19%, =0%), Texas (19%, -16%), TCU (18%, +5%), BGU (11%, -2%), Boise St (8%, +1%), App St (8%), WKU (8%, -2%), Air Force (8%), Western Michigan (6%)
next loss CCG Mich St (43%, -15%), Arkansas (43%), Alabama (39%, +14%), Florida St (27%, +17%), USC (21%, +12%), Florida (14%), Stanford (13%, -8%), Tennessee (12%), Clemson (9%)
1-loss at large Michigan (32%, +6%), Wisconsin (32%, -29%), Arkansas (27%, +11%), Alabama (26%, +6%), Indiana (25%), Mich St (22%, -9%), Florida St (20%, +14%), Texas A&M (19%, +13%), Louisville (15%, +5%), Tennessee (10%), Stanford (10%, +2%), Clemson (7%), Florida (7%, +1%), West Virginia (6%), Texas (6%, -11%), Utah (6%), Washington (6%)
2-loss champ California (44%), UCLA (27%, -6%), Notre Dame (7%, -3%)
Teams that lost but are still in contention: California, BYU, OK State, TCU, Utah St, WKU, Akron
Eliminated from Top Tiers with a loss: Penn State, UConn, M Tenn St, New Mexico, South Alabama
Eliminated from Top Tiers statistically: La Tech

Miami is the only team new to the Guaranteed category, finally passing the 1% likelihood of going undefeated.

The SEC and ACC made significant strides in the wake of the Big 12’s faltering, enhancing their chances of making the playoff even with 1 loss. Mississippi State was 1 of 2 teams (along with App State) to be resurrected from the “Eliminated” category after posting strong wins.

The Big Ten slipped a bit in their perch atop college football as the league most likely to send multiple teams go the playoff. But a single loss was enough to Eliminate Penn State in what is assuredly the deepest division in football.

dth dh

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