Playoff Picture

Week 3 Playoff Picture

The big thumping of Florida State by Louisville has them down but not out. The cardinal rule of losing is to do it as early as possible. The computer still guarantees Florida State (along with other 1-loss teams like LSU, California, and UCLA) a free pass to the playoff if they win out and win their conference. But the Seminoles are the only team among those four who no longer control their path.

The undefeated Big 12 teams have now slid behind undefeated champions from the American and, gulp, Mid-American conferences when it comes to likelihood of making the playoff. Blame it on poor out-of-conference performance on top of poor out-of-conference scheduling. Of course, we too have doubts the committee will put a 13-0 Western Michigan in the playoff over a 12-0 West Virginia. Did we mention, the lack of a conference championship game does dampen the eventual Big 12 champ’s strength of schedule compared to other teams.

Guaranteed > 91%
Undefeated Alabama (100%), Arkansas (100%), Florida (100%), Mich St (100%), Michigan (100%), Nebraska (100%), Ohio State (100%), Texas A&M (100%), Wisconsin (100%), Stanford (99%, =0%), Georgia (99%, =0%), Utah (99%, =0%), Tennessee (99%), Louisville (99%, -1%), Washington (99%, +1%), Houston (99%, +2%), Clemson (98%, =0%), Memphis (97%), Navy (97%), Miami (97%, -2%), South Florida (96%, -1%), Toledo (92%, +2%)
1 loss Champ Ohio State (99%, =0%), LSU (97%, -2%), Wisconsin (97%, +3%), California (96%, -1%), Michigan (94%, +1%), Mich St (93%, =0%), Florida St (91%, +23%), UCLA (91%)
Favored > 51%
Undefeated Air Force (87%, +11%), Boise St (85%, +2%), Western Michigan (81%, +11%), West Virginia (79%, =0%), Baylor (70%, +4%), SDSU (66%, +1%), Ga Southern (55%, +6%)
1 loss Champ Arkansas (87%, -4%), Alabama (87%, =0%), Nebraska (84%), Oregon (83%, +20%), Tennessee (83%, +10%), Texas A&M (81%), Iowa (78%), Florida (78%, +6%), Stanford (71%, =0%), Georgia (65%, +13%), Pittsburgh (63%, +21%), Arizona St (57%, +13%), Utah (55%, +5%)
Next Loss in CCG Ohio State (90%, +7%), Michigan (56%, -6%), Wisconsin (53%, +2%), Mich St (53%, +10%)
1 loss at large Ohio State (69%, +14%)
2 loss Champ USC (84%, +16%), LSU (52%, +1%), California (51%, +7%)
Need Help >6%
Undefeated Central Michigan (43%, +8%)
1 loss Champ Memphis (49%), Clemson (48%, +1%), Utah St (44%, +6%), Tulsa (44%), Colo St (42%, +9%), Houston (42%, +3%), Washington (42%, -4%), Louisville (40%, -24%), Miami (38%, -18%), Cincy (37%, +10%), Navy (37%), Texas (34%, +15%), Akron (27%, -13%), OK State (24%, -5%), South Florida (24%, -14%), Toledo (23%, +4%), UNC (21%, -5%), TCU (20%, +2%), UConn (18%), Texas Tech (14%*), Air Force (12%, +4%), Kansas St (11%), Marshall (11%), Boise St (10%, +2%), Western Michigan (7%, +1%)
Next Loss in CCG Alabama (38%, -1%), Nebraska (27%), Arkansas (26%, -17%), Tennessee (22%, +10%), Florida (16%, +2%), Stanford (14%, +1%), Houston (8%), Navy (8%), Clemson (7%), Louisville (7%)
1 loss at large Florida St (48%, +28%), Michigan (28%, -4%), Alabama (26%, =0%), Mich St (25%, +3%), Arkansas (21%, -6%), Tennessee (19%, +9%), Texas A&M (18%, -1%), Florida (16%, +9%), Stanford (12%, +2%), Washington (11%, +5%), Clemson (9% +2%), Louisville (8%, -7%), Houston (8%)
2 loss Champ Penn State (44%), UCLA (31%, +4%), Notre Dame (16%, +9%), Florida St (16%), Oregon (14%), Ole Miss (9%), Oklahoma (9%)
3 loss Champ USC (29%)
Summary
Lost, still favored Oregon, Iowa, Florida St, Pittsburgh
Lost, need help USC, Texas, Marshall, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Cincinnati
Lost, eliminated
Eliminated without loss Western Kentucky

 

Western Kentucky is our second team to be eliminated via statistics, the first beingĀ Louisiana Tech. Don’t be surprised if Marshall becomes the third Conference USA team to be eliminated 2 weeks after a loss. The high-hopes for the conference are not materializing both at the top and the bottom.

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