Uncategorized

Week 4 Playoff Picture

The top 3 conferences are easy to identify, the ACC, Big Ten, and SEC. The Big 12 has slid to #6 this year, at least on top. But who is #4 and #5? Conventional wisdom says the Pac-12 is lightyears ahead of the American Conference, but we’ve run the numbers and the American seems more likely to reach the playoff. Part of this is because the chances of a Pac-12 team finishing with 1 or fewer losses is dim; but the other part is that the American is hooding their own in OOC games. While the talent disparity may be great, the record disparity is small.

There were many casualties this week as conference play opened. 20 contenders lost, 11 of them fatally so. Minnesota, Wake Forest, and Virginia Tech bounced back onto our list in large part because their chances of winning-out crept back over 1%… so don’t hold your breath yet on them making the playoff. It could happen.

Guaranteed > 91%
Undefeated Alabama (100%), Louisville (100%, +1%), Michigan (100%), Nebraska (100%), Ohio State (100%), Tennessee (100%, +1%), Texas A&M (100%), Wisconsin (100%), Houston (99%, =0%), Clemson (99%, +1%), Stanford (99%, =0%), Arizona St (99%), Miami (99%, +1%), Utah (99%, =0%), Memphis (99%, +2%), Wake Forest (99%), Navy (98%, +1%), Washington (98%, -1%)
1 loss Champ Ohio State (99%, =0%), Wisconsin (97%, =0%), Michigan St (96%, +3%), Florida St (94%, +3%), Michigan (93%, -1%), Arkansas (92%, +5%)
Favored > 51%
Undefeated Toledo (87%, -5%), West Virginia (83%, +4%), Western Michigan (76%, -5%), Baylor (76%, +6%), Boise St (68%, -17%), Air Force (67%, -20%)
1 loss Champ Alabama (89%, +2%), Nebraska (87%, +3%), Iowa (87%, +8%), Tennessee (85%, +2%), Florida (83%, +5%), Georgia (80%, +15%), Texas A&M (78%, -3%), Louisville (69%, +29%), Clemson (66%, +18%), Virginia Tech (60%), Minnesota (51%), Stanford (51%, -20%), Memphis (51%, +2%)
Next Loss in CCG Ohio State (85%, -5%), Wisconsin (65%, +13%), Michigan (62%, +6%)
1 loss at large Ohio State (57%, -12%), Florida St (56%, +8%), Wisconsin (51%)
2 loss Champ Ole Miss (86%, +77%), LSU (78%, +26%), Auburn (64%)
Need Help >6%
Undefeated San Diego State (28%, -38%)
1 loss Champ Houston (47%, +5%), Miami (47%, +9%), Utah (47%, -8%), UNC (45%, +24%), Washington (45%, +3%), Tulsa (44%, =0%), Arizona St (42%, -15%), USF (36%, +12%), Texas (34%, =0%), Cincy (33%, -4%), Texas Tech (28%, +14%), Navy (28%, -9%), TCU (20%, =0%), Pittsburgh (15%), Toledo (9%, -14%)
Next Loss in CCG Alabama (45%, +7%), Texas A&M (33%), Nebraska (31%, +4%), Tennessee (26%, +4%), Louisville (24%, +17%), Houston (17%, +9%), Clemson (15%, +8%), Arizona St (6%)
1 loss at large Alabama (30%, +4%), Nebraska (24%), Louisville (22%, +14%), Michigan (21%, -7%), Tennessee (17%, -2%), Clemson (15%, +6%), Texas A&M (12%, -6%), Houston (11%, +3%)
2 loss Champ UCLA (47%, +16%), Michigan St (29%), Florida St (19%, +3%), Oklahoma (11%, +2%), Iowa (10%), Georgia (9%), Florida (8%)
2 loss at large Ole Miss (10%)
Summary
Lost, still favored Michigan St, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mich St
Lost, need help USF, UCLA, Pittsburgh
Lost, eliminated Ga Southern, W Michigan, Utah St, Colo St, Akron, UConn, Penn State, Oregon, Notre Dame, OK State, Marshall
Eliminated without loss Kansas St

Kansas State fell victim to a variety of factors. 11-1 is ‘bad’ from a Big 12 team. they get 0 credit for playing an FCS team this week, and running the table in the Big 12 is quite doubtful for this squad. Their first Big 12 opponent is West Virginia this week; we’ll see if they can’t double their chances of 11-1.

Ole Miss appears as a curious 10-2 at large playoff hopeful. If they win out AND win the SEC, we give them a 86% chance of making the playoff. If they win out but Alabama still makes the SECCG, Ole Miss is looking at a decent 10% chance. After beating Memphis this week, having those Tigers win the American could sway things in their favor. Florida State doing well in the ACC, Georgia in the SEC East, and even Ga Southern in the Sun Belt would all enhance Ole Miss’s strength of schedule.

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Please log in using one of these methods to post your comment:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s