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Week 5 Playoff Picture

Louisville, Wisconsin, and Stanford each lost in Top 10 matchups and are still favored to make the playoff if they win out and win their conference. Arizona State and Utah are in the same favored position.

The top of the picture is clear. The Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Washington/Houston are all IN. if they finish undefeated. Sure that is 5 possible teams and we actually think the Huskies will be the odd-man out if it comes down to that… but we don’t think it will.

Champions of the Big Ten and SEC are also guaranteed a playoff spot with one loss… the SEC West with 2. Baylor, West Virginia, Boise State, Air Force, and even Western Michigan are still “favored” to make the playoff with unblemished record, but it is far from a guarantee.

Guaranteed > 90%
Undefeated Alabama (100%), Clemson (100%, +1%), Miami (100%, +1%), Michigan (100%), Nebraska (100%), Ohio State (100%), Tennessee (100%), Texas A&M (100%), Houston (99%, =0%), Washington (98%, =0%)
1 loss Champ Ohio State (99%, =0%), Wisconsin (98%, +1%), Arkansas (97%, +5%), Michigan (97%, +4%), Alabama (96%, +7%), Texas A&M (93%, +15%), Louisville (92%, +23%), Nebraska (90%, +3%)
Next Loss in CCG Ohio State (97%, +12%)
2 loss Champ Ole Miss (93%, +7%), LSU (92%, +16%)
Favored > 50%
Undefeated Boise State (89%, +21%), West Virginia (86%, +3%), Baylor (81%, +5%), Western Michigan (77%, +1%), Air Force (74%, +7%)
1 loss Champ Va Tech (76%, +16%), Florida (76%, -7%), Clemson (70%, +4%), Memphis (68%, +17%), Stanford (65%,+14%), Miami (62%, +15%), Arizona St (60%, +18%), UNC (59%, +14%), Utah (53%, +11%)
Next Loss in CCG Michigan (73%, +11%), Alabama (68%, +23%), Texas A&M (51%, +18%)
1 loss at large Ohio State (77%, +20%)
2 loss Champ Auburn (72%, +8%), California (58%)
Need Help >5%
1 loss Champ Houston (47%, =0%), Navy (44%, +16%*), Tulsa (38%, -6%), Washington (35%, -10%), USF (29%, -7%), NC State (28%), Texas Tech (26%, -2%), Toledo (23%, +14%), Boise St (10%), West Virginia (7%), Ga Southern (5%)
Next Loss in CCG Tennessee (36%, +10%), Nebraska (35%, +4%), Clemson (18%, +3%), Houston (15%, -2%), Washington (5%), Miami (5%)
1 loss at large Alabama (45%, +15%), Texas A&M (32%, +20%), Louisville (32%, +10%), Michigan (28%, +7%), Clemson (16%, +1%), Houston (13%, +2%), Stanford (9%), Florida (8%), Miami (8%)
2 loss Champ Wisconsin (48%), UCLA (44%, -3%), Oklahoma (16%, +5%), Colorado (12%), Louisville (9%), Memphis (5%)
2 loss at large Michigan St (13%), Ole Miss (11%, +1%), Florida St (8%)
3 loss Champ USC (34%)
Summary
Lost, still favored Louisville, Wisconsin, Stanford, Arizona St, Utah
Lost, need help Michigan St, Florida St, Memphis, Toledo, Navy
Lost, eliminated Iowa, Georgia, Minnesota, Cincy, TCU, Texas, SDSU
Eliminated without loss Pittsburgh

 

Pittsburgh was this week’s statistical elimination. It is an uphill battle for a middle-of-the-road team to make it out of the crowded ACC-Coastal… we just don’t think it will happen. Minnesota, with only 1 loss, faces similar odds in the Big Ten; eliminated.

Three undefeateds in the Pac-12 (Stanford, Utah, and ASU) were upended, opening the door for California, USC, and Colorado to again eye a possible title run. There are still slim, slim hopes for playoff bids too.

NC State also makes an appearance after defeated previously unbeaten. They face Notre Dame, Clemson, and Louisville next… but if they somehow win-out they’re given a 28% chance of making the playoff.

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