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Week 7 Playoff Picture

The road to the playoff got narrower this week, for the first time of the year as there were 0 upsets among playoff contenders. We have bolded each team’s most likely finish among those listed on the chart; and see that only SEC, ACC, and Big Ten champs are both “likely” and in “Guaranteed” position. Among “Favored” teams, the Pac-12, Big 12, and MAC each have a champion featured. Who will be that fourth team?

 

Guaranteed > 90%
Undefeated Alabama (100%), Clemson (100%), Michigan (100%), Nebraska (100%), Ohio State (100%), Texas A&M (100%), Boise St (98%, +1%)
1 loss Champ Ohio St (99%, =0%), Florida (97%, +39%), Michigan (95%, -2%), Alabama (94%, -3%), Louisville (94%, -3%), Nebraska (93%, -2%)
Next Loss in CCG Ohio St (98%, -1%)
Favored > 50%
Undefeated West Virginia (88%, +1%), Baylor (81%, -4%), Western Michigan (79%, -1%)
1 loss Champ Clemson (87%, +5%), Texas A&M (80%), Houston (69%, -1%), Utah (54%, -7%), Washington (50%, -7%)
Next Loss in CCG Alabama (70%, -7%), Michigan (54%, -11%)
1 loss At Large Ohio State (74%, -7%)
2 loss Champ LSU (81%), Florida St (78%, -2%), Auburn (75%, +6%), Wisconsin (65%, +12%)
Need Help >5%
1 loss Champ Memphis (49%, -11%), USF (35%, =0%), Navy (31%, -12%), Wash St (30%, -5%), Toledo (28%, -7%), Boise St (16%, -1%), West Virginia (8%, -1%)
Next Loss in CCG Texas A&M (45%, -14%), Clemson (41%, +6%), Nebraska (39%, =0%), Washington (10%, -4%)
1 loss At Large Alabama (44%, -6%), Louisville (39%, -2%), Texas A&M (24%, -14%), Houston (17%, -3%), Michigan (16%, -12%), Washington (5%, -5%)
2 loss Champ Penn State (47%, -21%), Pittsburgh (25%, -9%), Oklahoma (19%, +2%), Tennessee (18%, -4%), Colorado (15%, -4%), Louisville (13%, -6%), Stanford (12%,+6%), Florida (12%), Arizona St (6%)
2 loss At Large Florida St (9%, -2%)
3 loss Champ USC (11%, -5%)
Summary
Lost, still favored Wisconsin
Lost, need help Tennessee, Arizona St
Lost, eliminated UCLA, Miami, NC State, Air Force, Tulsa, Virginia Tech
Eliminated without loss California

 

As a bonus, we’ll also collate teams by conference to get a bird’s-eye-view of most likely playoff teams:

Favorites >66%
100% undefeated Clemson, Washington, Big Ten, and SEC Champs
98.32% undefeated Boise State
96.96% 1 loss Big Ten Champ
91.22% 1 loss SEC Champ
87.60% 1 loss ACC Champ
84.63% undefeated Big 12 Champ
79.17% undefeated Western Michigan
Contenders >33%
52.00% 1 loss Pac-12 Champ
48.51% 1 loss Big Ten at-large
46.38% 1 loss American Champ
40.56% 2 loss Big Ten Champ
40.14% 1 loss SEC at-large
40.07% 1 loss Louisville at-large
Need Chaos >5%
24.18% 2 loss SEC Champ
17.54% 1 loss Houston at-large
14.11% 2 loss ACC Champ
13.34% 1 loss MAC Champ
11.71% 1 loss MW Champ
11.70% 2 loss Big 12 Champ
8.33% 1 loss Washington at-large
6.67% 2 loss Pac-12 Champ
6.35% 1 loss Big 12 Champ

 

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