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Comparison with 538

I don’t expect to win, but I think I have a chance. The rules are somewhat simple. Each week we count the % chances 538 and our Computer give to each team to accomplish 3 tasks (win a P5 conference, make the playoff, and win the National Championship).

At the end of the season we will sum these chances from each week to see how much we expected the eventual winners to win. 538 does not make the data from all 128 teams available, so hopefully there are no huge CCG upsets for which we don’t have their conference odds.

Scoring. The model which compiles the most percentage pointsd for each of the 4 playoff teams and each of the 5 P5 champions and the 1 national champion, wins. In case of a tie, the median victory margin among the 4 playoff teams shall count as an 11th point. Where percentage points are very close, a “tie” may be declared.

Our Computer odds are HERE. 538’s are reprinted below and also found HERE.

Gotta hand it to them with their interactive charts. I am a little jealous. One day.

Conf Playoff Natty TEAM PLAYOFF with win/loss/winout
72 75 16 Clemson 76/40/100
57 74 31 Alabama 84/57/100
55 60 20 Michigan 61/32/100
46 47 8 Washington 52/27/100
19 32 7 Ohio State 37/5/96
2 26 6 Louisville 28/0/39
3 19 3 Texas A&M 24/2/61
14 11 1 Wisconsin 18/0/74
11 9 2 Auburn 10/0/58
55 8 0 Oklahoma 9/0/33
8 7 2 LSU 18/0/68
27 6 0 Colorado 8/0/42
17 4 0 West Virginia 5/0/32
12 3 0 Baylor 5/0/48
17 3 0 Florida 5/0/91
17 3 0 Va Tech 5/0/41
15 3 0 Wash St 3/0/49
5 2 0 Nebraska 9/0/87
16 2 0 OK State 4/0/18
4 2 0 Penn State 2/0/5
8 1 0 UNC 2/0/5
79 1 0 WMU 1/0/2
7 0 0 USC 1/0/11
5 0 0 Utah 1/0/23

The far right column is the “what if” column. The left 3 are easy to sum to 100% (or 400% with the playoff spots). We’ll be keeping track of these as well, just to see how consistent the 2 models are week-to-week.

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