Week 10 Playoff Picture

Only 12 teams remain on our list with an additional 10 teams not-listed below who made the playoff at least once over 10,000 simulations.

Guarantees > 99%
undefeated or 1-loss Champions: Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, Ohio State (100%)
13-0 Washington (100%)
11-1 Ohio State (99%)
Favored >66%
11-1 Alabama (94%)
CCGL Alabama (93%)
CCGL Clemson (88%)
CCGL Michigan (87%)
11-2 Auburn (68%)
Contenders >33%
12-1 Washington (56%)
11-1 Michigan (48%)
11-2 Wisconsin (45%)
11-1 Louisville (36%)
Need Chaos >5%
13-0 Western Michigan (27%)
11-2 Penn State (26%)
CCGL Ohio State (19%)
CCGL Washington (17%)
12-1 Boise State (11%)
11-1 Washington (10%)
11-2 Nebraska (7%)

10-2 Ohio State (7%)

The rule of thumb might be that any 0- or 1-loss P4 team are favored for getting into the playoff. The exceptions to this are Washington, Louisville and Michigan (if they end the season on a loss to OSU).

Auburn is the only 2-loss team favored, but the computer still sets them behind an 11-1 Alabama. If it is down to these 2 teams we think Auburn with the SEC Championship and Head-to-Head victory gets in. But if a 12-1 Washington is also in the mix the committee might opt for the 1-loss Champion over the 2-loss Champion and the 1-loss non-Champion.

11-1 Ohio State guaranteed? Yes. Should they go 11-1 and not make the playoff it is because the Big Ten East is won by 10-2 Penn State. Being the only Big Ten team left with 1 or fewer losses, Ohio State gets our nod for taking the conference’s seat at the playoff table. Such a scenario also relies on Michigan losing to Iowa or Indiana, so we’re not sure how likely this outcome is.

What about Louisville? It has been maintained by us that Louisville needs either Clemson or Washington to lose twice. It doesn’t look like that will happen. Still, we can all pine for the future inclusion of a Wild Card Game, where the Cardinals can face the 11-1 Buckeyes, Tide, or Wolverines to compete for the last playoff spot.


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