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Week 11 Playoff Picture

Right now only 3 playoff spots are filled by “Guarantees”: Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan/Ohio State. No other team controls its own destiny. Washington, Louisville, and Penn State/Wisconsin are all “Contenders” for the final spot.

Guarantees >99%
Undefeated or 1-loss Champs: Alabama, Clemson, Louisville, Michigan (100%)
11-1 Ohio State (100%, +1%)
CCGL Alabama (100%, +7%)
Favored >66%
CCGL Ohio State (81%)
11-2 Wisconsin (78%, +33%)
12-1 Washington (73%, +17%)
Contenders >33%
11-1 Louisville (63%, +27%)
11-2 Penn State (60%, +34%)
11-2 Clemson (44%, new) [this would be a loss to USCe but an ACCCG win, 6% probability]
10-2 Ohio State (36%, +29%)
Need Chaos >5%
12-1 Boise State (24%, +13%)
13-0 Western Michigan (22%, -5%)
11-2 Nebraska (21%, +14%)
11-1 Boise State (14%, new)
CCGL Michigan (12%, new)
11-2 Florida (9%, new)
10-2 Oklahoma (9%, new)

My computer is pretty low on Oklahoma but they don’t have a 13th game buoying their strength of schedule (because we all want to see back-to-back Bedlam). Colorado and Washington State check in at 4.6% and 4.2% respectively if they win out. WVU-OU and UC-WSU each play this week. If there is more chaos, the winners of these games may just jump up to “Contender” status.

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