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Week 2 Playoff Picture

The big news is “Oklahoma in, Ohio State out” but there are still many teams “in” the hunt as they have yet to lose. For example, Michigan tops our list; they are the most likely team to finish undefeated in the deepest conference. Below is a list of teams with a fighting chance at the playoffs; conferences with 3+ such teams have their odds collated so that this list doesn’t extend to 100+ entries.

Our “Top 5” is unchanged; winning a Power conference is a quick ticket to the playoff. Odds here are not converging on 100% too quickly because (a) there are only 4 playoff spots and (b) conferences still have a chance to “wet the bed” and make 12-1 from another conference (the Big Ten?) more deserving than 13-0.

The Sun Belt is out (technically they have a 0.06% chance, but Hurricane Irma did not wipe out the other 10 FBS conferences). The MAC, MW, and CUSA have dwindled to 6 total teams capable of running the table (no, not counting UTSA).

The American Athletic Conference has been successful in stationing itself as the 6th best conference, but we won’t call it a “Power” conference yet. Going undefeated in the AAC saw an 11-point uptick this week. They have win-able games against Illinois, UCLA, Virginia, and Toledo out-of-conference this week, which could bounce this number even higher.

Air Force is the only non-Power team listed as a  “Contender” (though a few AAC teams would be as well were they not collated). The Falcon’s playoff-determining game is this week, against Michigan; a win here and the Academy will begin being mentioned by media outlets as a playoff darkhorse.

Playoff% Record Team (chance of this finish)
Guaranteed (>99%)
Favorites (>66%)
97.89% (-1%) Undefeated Big Ten: Michigan (6%), Penn State (5%), others
92.76% (+0%) Undefeated SEC: Alabama (21%), LSU (3%), others
91.84% (+1%) Undefeated Pac-12: USC (14%), Washington (5%), others
86.23% (+2%) Undefeated Big 12: Oklahoma (19%), OK State (7%), others
84.08% (-1%) Undefeated ACC: Clemson (21%), Louisville (3%), others
73.64% (+8%) 1-loss At Large Big 12: Oklahoma (6%), OK State (3%), others
70.84% (+3%) 1-loss At Large Big Ten: Michigan (6%), Penn State (6%), others
70.37% (new) undefeated Air Force (2%)
69.1% (+2%) 1-loss Champ Big Ten: Michigan (8%), Penn State (7%), others
Contenders (>33%)
65.45% (-1%) 1-loss At Large Notre Dame (1%)
58.43% (+11%) Undefeated AAC: USF (6%), Houston (5%), others
57.2% (-3%) undefeated Army (2%)
54.91% (+4%) 1-loss Champ Pac-12: USC (15%), Washington (6%), others
54.23% (+6%) 1-loss At Large SEC: Alabama (11%), LSU (3%), others
52.99% (+6%) 1-loss At Large Pac-12: USC (8%), Colorado (5%), others
51.87% (-1%) 1-loss Champ SEC: Alabama (17%), Tennessee (4%)
41.91% (-2%) 1-loss Champ ACC: Clemson (17%), Va Tech (4%), others
37.56% (+1%) 1-loss At Large ACC: Clemson (10%), Miami (2%), others
37.25% (+4%) 1-loss Champ Big 12: Oklahoma (19%), OK State (9%), others
Need Help (>5%)
29.8% (+1%) Undefeated MAC: E Michigan (3%), Toledo (3%), C Michigan (2%)
27.54% (+5%) 2-loss Champ Big Ten: others
23.12% (+5%) 1-loss At Large AAC: Houston (4%), Navy (3%), others
22.37% (new) Undefeated San Diego St (4%)
19.98% (+5%) 1-loss Champ AAC: Houston (6%), Navy (5%), others
17.14% (new) Undefeated Old Dominion (4%)
16.86% (+2%) 2-loss At Large Big Ten: others
12.84% (+0%) 2-loss Champ Pac-12: others
11.7% (+0%) 2-loss Champ SEC: others
7.62% (+1%) 2-loss At Large SEC: others
7.33% (+0%) 2-loss At Large Pac-12: others
7.16% (-2%) 1-loss Champ MW: Boise St (5%), Air Force (4%), others
5.05% (new) 1-loss At Large Army (3%)

 

 

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