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Week 9 Playoff Picture

The SEC (Alabama-Georgia), Big Ten (OSU/PSU/Wisky), and Miami/Notre Dame have a hold on 3 playoff spots.

What of the fourth? 1-loss non-champions: Georgia and Penn State form the second tier along with… an undefeated UCF from the “Power Six” American Athletic Conference. A 1-loss Clemson is in this tier too, as is a potentially surprising 11-2 Michigan State team. Finally, the loser of the Notre Dame-Miami game rounds out this non-chaos, “Contenders” set of teams.

Oklahoma and OK State have the best hopes from the Big 12, especially if Iowa State and TCU, respectively, also win-out. Stanford (34%), Virginia Tech (17%), USC (16%), TCU (8%), and Washington (8%) finalize the list of Power Conference teams >5% chance of making the playoff if they win-out.

Guarantees > 95%
100% Win-Out Champs: Alabama (34%), Georgia (32%), Wisconsin (31%), Miami (22%), Penn State (7%)
99.90% 1-loss At Large
Notre Dame (32%)
99.80% 1-loss Champ
Ohio State (26%)
98.60% 1-loss Champ Georgia (13%)
Contenders > 45%
89.00% 1-loss Champ Clemson (26%)
86.90% Undefeated
Central Florida (37%)
82.30% 2-loss Champ
Michigan State (2%)
78.00% 1-loss At Large
Penn State (42%)
71.90% 1-loss Champ Alabama (9%)
68.30% 1-loss Champ Wisconsin (12%)
53.10% 1-loss At Large Georgia (23%)
49.60% 1-loss Champ Miami (21%)
49.00% 2-loss At Large
Notre Dame (36%)
Need Help > 5%
38.40% 1-loss Champ Oklahoma (20%)
34.90% 2-loss Champ Stanford (6%)
18.70% 1-loss Champ OK State (21%)
18.30% 1-loss At Large Alabama (30%)
17.40% 1-loss Champ
Virginia Tech (8%)
16.80% 2-loss Champ USC (29%)
13.90% 1-loss At Large Wisconsin (24%)
12.30% 1-loss Champ
Central Florida (11%)
12.00% 1-loss At Large Miami (17%)
11.40% 1-loss Champ Memphis (26%)
8.60% 1-loss Champ TCU (15%)
8.00% 2-loss Champ Clemson (7%)
8.00% 1-loss Champ
Washington (13%)
5.60% 2-loss At Large
Ohio State (23%)

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