2020 Playoff Conference Preview

And the 4 playoff spots go to… 4 of the 5 Power Five conferences champions? Maybe. The SEC or Big Ten might get two teams in. Notre Dame might make it too. Perhaps the Group of Five sneaks in?

Here is the breakdown.

Yes, if a Power Five team (including Notre Dame) goes undefeated, they should be in the playoff. The Pac-12 clocks in as the most likely to miss the playoff if they go undefeated, making the playoff only in 94% of such circumstances, though the chances their champion is undefeated is only 4%.

The Big Ten Champ can also afford a loss and still be “Guaranteed” a playoff spot (96% of the time). A 1-loss SEC Champ (74%) and a 1-loss Big Ten At-Large (77%) are “Favored” to make the playoff as is a 1-loss Notre Dame (62%) and, surprise, an undefeated American Athletic Conference Champion (71%).

Playoff	Record	Team (Odds)
Guaranteed (>90%)
100%	Undefeated	Big Ten (47%)
100%	Undefeated	Notre Dame (9%)
99%	Undefeated	SEC (32%)
96%	Undefeated	Big 12 (18%)
96%	Undefeated	ACC (38%)
96%	1-loss Champ	Big Ten (34%)
94%	Undefeated	Pac-12 (4%)
Favored (>60%)
77%	1-loss At-Large	Big Ten (66%)
74%	1-loss Champ	SEC (46%)
71%	Undefeated	American (11%)
62%	1-loss At-Large	Notre Dame (29%)
Contenders (>30%)
53%	Undefeated	Sun Belt (2%)
45%	Undefeated	MW (27%)
39%	1-loss Champ	Big 12 (33%)
38%	1-loss At-Large	SEC (50%)
37%	2-loss Champ	Big Ten (13%)
34%	1-loss Champ	Pac-12 (20%)
Need Chaos (>5%)
28%	1-loss At-Large	Big 12 (8%)
28%	Undefeated	MAC (<1%)
25%	Undefeated	CUSA (1%)
22%	1-loss Champ	ACC (40%)
18%	1-loss At-Large	Pac-12 (8%)
15%	2-loss At-Large	Big Ten (128%)
10%	2-loss Champ	SEC (17%)
8%	1-loss At-Large	ACC (8%)
5%	1-loss Champ	American (33%)
Others: The sky is the limit on the amount of chaos this season may see. In at least 1 of the 10,000 simulations: a 3-loss team from most Power Five conferences made it, 2-loss teams from among Notre Dame, the American, and the ACC made it, and 1-loss teams from the MW, Sun Belt, and CUSA made it.